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Role Pacing: Forwards
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Jeff Veillette
Mar 11, 2014, 11:55 EDTUpdated:
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I’m seeing a lot of 82 game pace numbers being spread around the Internet right now for forwards on the Toronto Maple Leafs, mostly for the sake of arguing about people. The issue I have with a lot of these numbers is that they don’t account for ice time, so for the sake of your yelling, I’ve adjusted the numbers a bit for you. Enjoy and fly forth, young angry birds.

Straight Up

These are the current numbers for the Toronto Maple Leafs forwards. Goals, assists, points, and minutes. Lets keep it nice and simple; even games played will be irrelevant for now.
PlayerMinsGAPTS
Phil Kessel
1355
34
39
73
James van Riemsdyk
1335
26
27
53
Nazem Kadri
1099
17
27
44
Tyler Bozak
878
15
25
40
Joffrey Lupul
1058
19
19
38
Mason Raymond
1149
18
19
37
Nikolai Kulemin
889
8
11
19
David Bolland
244
6
4
10
Peter Holland
410
5
5
10
David Clarkson
697
4
6
10
Trevor Smith
283
4
5
9
Troy Bodie
242
2
7
9
Jay McClement
994
3
5
8
Carter Ashton
186
0
3
3
Jerry D’Amigo
153
1
1
2
Josh Leivo
69
1
1
2
David Broll
41
0
1
1

Top Six Minutes

Now, what happens when you put a player in the top six? Based on the structure of this team in the past couple of years, I’ve concluded that a first line player should expect to play about twenty minutes (slightly higher this year, but I digress), and a second line player about eighteen. Here’s how everybody adjusts.
PlayerMinsGAPTSMinsGAPTS
Phil Kessel
1640
41
47
88
1476
37
42
79
James van Riemsdyk
1640
31
33
64
1476
28
29
57
Nazem Kadri
1640
25
40
65
1476
22
36
58
Tyler Bozak
1640
28
46
74
1476
25
42
67
Joffrey Lupul
1640
29
29
58
1476
26
26
52
Mason Raymond
1640
25
27
52
1476
23
24
47
Nikolai Kulemin
1640
14
20
34
1476
13
18
31
David Bolland
1640
40
26
66
1476
36
24
60
Peter Holland
1640
20
20
40
1476
18
18
36
David Clarkson
1640
9
14
23
1476
8
12
20
Trevor Smith
1640
23
28
51
1476
20
26
46
Troy Bodie
1640
13
47
60
1476
12
42
54
Jay McClement
1640
4
8
12
1476
4
7
11
Carter Ashton
1640
0
26
26
1476
0
23
23
Jerry D’Amigo
1640
10
10
20
1476
9
9
18
Josh Leivo
1640
23
23
46
1476
21
21
42
David Broll
1640
0
40
40
1476
0
36
36

Bottom Six Minutes

The Leafs use their third line more than most teams, to make up for the fact that their fourth line is really a fighting squad and Jay McClement. As such, you get fifteen minutes a game on the third line, and seven minutes a game on the fourth.
PlayerMinsGAPTSMinsGAPTS
Phil Kessel
1230
30
35
65
574
14
16
30
James van Riemsdyk
1230
23
24
47
574
11
11
22
Nazem Kadri
1230
19
30
49
574
8
14
22
Tyler Bozak
1230
21
35
56
574
9
16
25
Joffrey Lupul
1230
22
22
44
574
10
10
20
Mason Raymond
1230
19
20
39
574
8
9
17
Nikolai Kulemin
1230
11
15
26
574
5
7
12
David Bolland
1230
30
20
50
574
14
9
23
Peter Holland
1230
15
15
30
574
7
7
14
David Clarkson
1230
7
10
17
574
3
4
7
Trevor Smith
1230
17
21
38
574
8
10
18
Troy Bodie
1230
10
35
45
574
4
16
20
Jay McClement
1230
3
6
9
574
1
2
3
Carter Ashton
1230
0
19
19
574
0
9
9
Jerry D’Amigo
1230
8
8
16
574
3
3
6
Josh Leivo
1230
17
17
34
574
8
8
16
David Broll
1230
0
30
30
574
0
14
14

Imperfection

Of course, this style of pace adjustment also doesn’t tell the whole story. Players like David Bolland and Josh Leivo are riding high numbers under low original minutes, which basically gives an extrapolation of a small sample size. Carter Ashton’s adjustment doesn’t account for the fact he’s still playing those 20 minutes a night with Colton Orr instead of Phil Kessel. Hell, if Orr played with Kessel, he may have some points to work with (don’t try this Randy). Conversely, if any of the first liners played fourth line minutes, their roles would change and production would drop. We’re also not accounting for chemistry either; what happens if Tyler Bozak drops to a line with say, Clarkson and Raymond and loses his Kessel-collaborative superpowers?
But you still get an idea of how their current play would work if given the time limits of a certain line, which is more accurate.than stretching to 82 games.
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