Ryan McDonagh played his 1,000th game on March 27, which naturally invites reflection on an outstanding career. McDonagh is the type of defenceman that every general manager craves, he’s not quite a future Hall of Famer, but he’s won two Stanley Cups, he’s been named to two All-Star games and he’s seemingly always in the right place, at the right time. McDonagh and Erik Cernak are crushing opponents this season and they may be the shutdown pairing to beat in the Atlantic Division, as the Tampa Bay Lightning are once again threatening as a leading contender.

McDonagh and Cernak are the ninth-most used pairing in the NHL at 5-on-5, and while you usually see some diminishing returns with this type of volume, the veteran Lightning defenders are completely locked in. During 940:55 together at 5-on-5, McDonagh and Cernak have posted a plus-17 goal differential (39-22) with a 50.2 percent share of the expected goals. Victor Hedman has been in vintage form this season and augments any partner placed alongside him, whether it’s J.J. Moser or Darren Raddysh, while McDonagh-Cernak are a steady, go-to pairing that is capable of shutting down any top-six forward group.

There are some parallels between McDonagh and Chris Tanev, although it’s an inexact comparison, as McDonagh is a left-handed defenceman who entered the league as a coveted prospect, while Tanev is a right-shot defenceman who is one of the great undrafted players in NHL history. McDonagh ranks 21st in blocked shots — and recently became the eighth player in NHL history with 2,000 career blocks — — he’s registered some secondary offence with three goals and 30 points in 77 games, and while plus-minus is often considered an outdated way to evaluate defencemen, he leads the NHL with a plus-42 rating. Cernak, for what it’s worth, has recorded a sterling plus-30 rating, a plus-nine goal differential at 5-on-5, although he admittedly holds an inferior 45 percent share of the expected goals.

McDonagh is an essential part of the Lightning’s penalty kill, along with Selke candidates Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel. The 35-year-old was recently named as one of The Athletic’s most underrated defencemen, which seems absurd this far into his career, but McDonagh is an elite player that is often overlooked in large part due to Hedman’s all-world impact every year. McDonagh and Cernak have the championship pedigree to rely on, and they won’t be fazed by any opponent they face, which could include Auston Matthews and the Maple Leafs down the line.

There are factors to consider, but the McDonagh-Cernak pairing have outperformed Toronto’s shutdown group of Tanev and Jake McCabe throughout the season, and while Gustav Forsling and Aaron Ekblad are a formidable duo, Ekblad is still serving a 20-game suspension for PED use that will carry into the first two games of the playoffs. From our vantage point, the Atlantic Division always provides the toughest route, and McDonagh-Cernak are winning their matchups handily. Nobody will want to see the Lightning, in part due to their stellar contributions from the blue line.