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TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: #12 Brendan Leipsic
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Ryan Hobart
Aug 18, 2016, 09:32 EDTUpdated:
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TLN12
I feel Brendan Leipsic is one of the most overlooked prospects within the Maple Leafs’ development system. It’s a simple case, really. Leipsic is one of a plethora of under-6’0″ wingers that the Leafs have ownership of. It’s not hard to lower your expectations of him when there isn’t that much pressure for him to succeed. Not everyone can get an NHL job and so if it’s one of the other small wingers instead of Leipsic, no one will be upset.
But it’s important to pay attention to Leipsic, as he brings a lot of tools to the game that maybe the others do not. I sincerely believe that, if given an opportunity, he’ll have a successful first NHL season next year.

The Votes

JeffRyan H.ShawnRyan F.AdamDomJessKatyReaders
8
9
11
12
12
9
13
N/R
12
Leipsic was placed 9th in our 2015 rankings.

Player Bio

PositionHometownHeightWeightHand2015 TeamAcquired
LW
Winnipeg, MB
5’9
165
Left
Toronto Marlies
Trade (2015)

The Stats

 SEASONAgeTEAMLEAGUEGPGATPNHLePIM+/-
 2007-08
13
 Winnipeg Monarchs Bntm AAA Div 2
 WBAAA2
28
20
15
35
N/A
62
N/A
 2008-09
14
 Winnipeg Monarchs Bantam AAA
 WBAAA
29
16
20
36
N/A
38
N/A
 2009-10
15
 Winnipeg Wild Midget AAA
 MMHL
41
23
40
63
N/A
38
N/A
 2010-11
16
 Portland Winterhawks
 WHL
68
16
17
33
10.74
50
13
 2011-12
17
 Portland Winterhawks
 WHL
65
28
30
58
19.76
82
16
 2012-13
18
 Portland Winterhawks
 WHL
68
49
71
120
39.07
103
55
 2013-14
19
 Portland Winterhawks 
 WHL
60
39
52
91
33.58
111
28
 2014-15
20
Milwaukee / Toronto
 AHL
74
14
40
54
28.12
22
5
 2015-16
21
 Toronto Maple Leafs
 NHL
6
1
2
3
41
2
-1
 
21
 Toronto Marlies
 AHL
65
20
34
54
32.02
55
16
After tearing up the town with a loaded Portland Winterhawks team (from 2012-2014 they featured a season or two of Nic Petan, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Seth Jones, Ty Rattie, Derrick Pouliot, Taylor Leier, and Matt Dumba), many considered Leipsic a passenger on that roster, as they did with Petan when he was drafted.
But since, Leipsic has proven his doubters wrong, scoring 54 points in his rookie AHL season, and matched the same total points (in 9 fewer games) this past season. He’s undoubtedly had AHL success. Will he be able to bring the same success to the NHL?

Projection Stats

pGPSnpGPSspGPS%pGPS PPGpGPS PP82pGPSr
146 (6/18)
61 (5/18)
41.8% (7/18)
0.57 (9/18)
46.82 (9/18)
23.85 (8/18)
  • pGPSn: The number of matches between the subject and the player-seasons (one season by a single player, i.e, John Tavares 2008 OHL) in the historical sample.
  • pGPSs: The number of statistical matches that became NHL regulars. This is determined by playing 200 NHL games.
  • pGPS%: Simply s divided by n, this is the percentage of statistical matches that successfully became NHL players.
  • pGPS PPG: The NHL points per game of successful matches.
  • pGPS P82: The same as pGPS PPG, but stretched over 82 games.
  • pGPSr: A bit of a hybrid number, this pGPS Rating combines the percentage and points per game to produce a number that includes both likelihood of success and potential upside.
Based on the success of his historical comparables, Leipsic is projected to become a middle-six forward.
To learn more about the Prospect Graduation Probabilities System, check out this post.
pGPSr has a strong correlation with NHL P/GP, around 45%. This is significantly stronger than Corsi has with winning. Leipsic’s 23.85 is likely near the center of the distribution (i.e. average changes of success), but I haven’t looked at the histogram personally. A pGPS% of 41.8% is really strong; that’s about the same chances of success as a 20-25th overall pick at the time of the pick.

The Eye Test

Leipsic is a small but feisty player, as many have been told. He isn’t a dirty player by any means, but gets under the opponents skin in the same way (but not to the same degree) as Brendan Gallagher or our own Leo Komarov. He also doesn’t really back it up with the same punishing physicality that Komarov does. 
READ MORE: What new Leafs prospect Brendan Leipsic’s track record suggests about his upside
His scoring ability comes from really slick skating, and puck control talents that few in the AHL can keep up with. He needs to work on his shooting, not on the shot necessarily but from where he takes shots from. He’ll likely see a significant scoring increase if he can display the strength and creativity required to get chances in the slot at the NHL level.

As Seen on TV

Here we can see Leipsic score one of the coolest 1st NHL goals I’ve ever seen (though not the prettiest). Have a look:

The Buildup

Last season, Leipsic got a 6 game stay with the NHL club. Too short to do any real analysis on (generally you need about 15 games for Score Adjusted Corsi, 20 for xGF%), but it was a nice glimpse into him as a player. I felt he was really solid and deserved a longer look, but as we all know, the roster was a complete carousel of players post-trade deadline. 
READ MORE: Brendan Leipsic scores hat trick in eventual Marlies victory
His stint with the Marlies, as mentioned above was very solid, and I think it should set him up well for a shot at the big club. 

Next Season

Obviously, there is a huge logjam of forwards in the Maple Leafs’ roster. I’m really excited about Leipsic’s opportunities next season, but barring a significant number of injuries or a superhuman preseason performance, I don’t think Leipsic makes the roster out of training camp.
READ MORE: Leipsic excited to begin playing in Leafs organization
However, as the season goes on and players are hurt, traded or press-boxed, I believe Leipsic will get a chance to show his stuff and really show what he’s got. With number of young, talented forwards on the Leafs, he should be able to come up and have solid quality of teammates and make a good impression on the coaching staff.

Closing Thoughts

I firmly believe that Leipsic is one of the Leafs’ top 10 prospects and is largely underrated by Leafs Nation. Many are certainly aware of his talents, but I don’t think too many expect him to have a significant impact in the NHL. I hope this piece helps to create some excitement around Leipsic, as I’m very excited to see his skillset in the NHL next season.
The Rankings So Far
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