Perhaps 48 hours after a frustrating loss to the 30th-place team isn’t the right time to publish a piece on why the Toronto Maple Leafs might have an advantage to their name in the playoffs, but it’s something worth talking about regardless. Besides, if there’s any instance when I can provide Leafs fans hope going on nine years of this trial-and-error experience, I’ll take it.

While you might have been hard-pressed to buy into the idea that a new coach was the one thing this team needed to have some playoff success, it’s hard to deny that some of the habits built by Craig Berube’s system don’t bode well for them. Until recently, the Leafs carried a perfect record when entering the third period with a lead, and with the addition of Brandon Carlo into the top-4 on defence, the back end looks stronger than it ever has before. Factor in the strong play in net from both Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll and a power play that seems to be surging at the right time, and there are at least a couple of positive signs heading into the postseason.

While there are still qualms about depth scoring, a penalty kill that’s cooled off in the second half of the season, and the evergreen worry that the Core forwards will dry up when the team needs them the most, the Maple Leafs have a new advantage that’s come to light in 2024-25 and one that could help them as they get into the postseason.

There’s a lot of talk about how, in the playoffs, you need to be able to win low-event, one-goal games. In the one sample size that we have of the Leafs putting together some playoff success, there are two notable factors that stick out. First, the first round against the Tampa Bay Lightning saw by far the best Leafs power play that we’ve seen from this team in the postseason. They carried the sixth-best power play of all teams in the first round, with a total percentage of 28.4%. Secondly, three of their four wins were won by one goal, specifically in overtime. They won Game 3 4-3 in overtime, Game 4 5-4 in overtime, and their series-winning game was a 2-1 win in overtime in Game 6. The Leafs had to mount a comeback in Games 3 and 4, which is less than ideal, but they don’t ask how you win games in the playoffs, only if you can walk out of the arena a winner.

Keeping this information in mind, a statistic emerged following the Leafs’ 2-1 win over the Colorado Avalanche on March 20 that could bode well for them when the calendar flips.

You can complain all you want about the Leafs’ playoff track record and lament over how there will never be a single stat or article that could convince you the Leafs have an advantage in the playoffs, and you’d be absolutely right to do so. We’re heading into the ninth year of what is, on paper, the most talented Leafs team in their entire 108-year franchise history, and all they have to show for it is a single-round win against the Lightning in 2022-23. And despite that Game 6 overtime winner providing the fanbase with enough serotonin to last a lifetime, the Florida Panthers made quick work of them in Round 2 and immediately erased any good grace the Leafs earned from that first-round performance.

That said, it’s hard to see a statistic like that and not feel at least a little encouraged by it. We’re talking about a team that’s in the history books with three teams from the 20th century, and there are still 12 games to go. As I said earlier, the team has a revitalized defensive corps that features arguably the most elite shutdown pair this team has had in the current era with Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev, and the addition of Carlo is proving to be a valuable one for both the penalty kill and Morgan Rielly. It also helps that the team’s power play is heating up at the end of the year when, usually, it’s going in the wrong direction. Since January 1, the Leafs have the third-best power play in the NHL at 32.9%, and while that number is likely to come back to earth as the games get tighter and the ice gets smaller, all they need is for it to be a weapon for them. Having it fire on all cylinders would be nice, but the playoffs aren’t easy, and with only one power-play goal in 21 opportunities against the Boston Bruins last season, the bar is quite literally on the floor.

All of this said, the power play is a conversation for a different day. The stakes are higher for the Leafs than ever before, and for the first time in what feels like forever, it seems as though there might actually be meaningful change in the offseason if they flounder once again. Mitch Marner and John Tavares are both on expiring deals, and now that general manager Brad Treliving has been at the helm for two years, there’s far more of a chance that a big move happens this summer should that be the result.

We’ll have tons of time for doom-and-gloom articles if the Leafs have another early exit, but for now, there’s still time to look at things objectively. And if the Leafs can keep up their habit of winning these tight games, it can only help their case when the standings reset.