The Toronto Maple Leafs‘ 2025-26 season may be over a month away from beginning, but one of the biggest pieces of business for them to tackle is the expiring contract of goalie Anthony Stolarz.

He made up one half of a strong goalie tandem alongside Joseph Woll, which resulted in both of them combining to be among the best in the NHL last season. Woll certainly had a solid year in his own right and was able to stay mostly healthy, but it became clear about midway through the campaign that Stolarz was the more reliable of the two, which is why he got the Game 1 start in the playoffs.

It should therefore come as no surprise that he and the Leafs have reportedly begun discussions about an extension in recent days as training camp fast approaches. They may not have touched base throughout the summer, given that GM Brad Treliving had other business to attend to, but figuring out what contract to give the netminder will be critical for the long-term planning both next season and down the line.

Determining what is a fair value for both sides starts by looking at recent extensions handed out to goalies around the NHL that are comparable to the type of goalie Stolarz is. Though it is worth noting that there aren’t many netminders quite like him, given he went from a fringe backup goalie who was injury-prone to one of the best backups in the league (though still injury-prone).

Since Woll inked a three-year, $3.66 million AAV deal with the Leafs on July 1st last year, here is the list of goalies who have signed for between $4 million and $7 million a season:

Including the likes of Igor Shesterkin, Jake Oettinger, Thatcher Demko, and Linus Ullmark would be unfair in this exercise since their cap hits are way higher due to them being considered more as starters than 1As. Dostal and Daccord could end up being the best value deals of that aforementioned group, but the rest could be classified more in line with what a tandem goalie would be signed to.

Stolarz is squarely in that latter group, though one could argue he was statistically the best of the group despite a smaller sample size. What separates him from the list of netminders is that he is the oldest in that group, with him turning 32 partway through next season, whereas the average age of the eight goalies is around 27. This means his window of overall effectiveness is not as long as some of the aforementioned names, and that could therefore have an impact on the structure of the deal.

It is worth noting that overpaying goalies is generally not a good idea; as the old saying goes, it’s hard to predict how a goalie fares from one season to the next. There are certainly some that can be relied upon for long periods of time, but the era of netminders getting well over 60 starts is long past; hence the rise in importance of the tandem. If you have two quality netminders, then you can easily offset one of them struggling by having another in a rhythm. Putting all your eggs in one basket leaves your team susceptible to massive falloffs (ie, the 2024-25 Boston Bruins).

The Leafs may argue that Stolarz’s being injury-prone and on the older side would make them set their asking price on the lower end of the $4 million AAV range. Meanwhile, his camp would likely point to his recent string of strong seasons and the fact that he played a part in the Florida Panthers winning the 2024 Stanley Cup to ask for a salary above $5 million.

If the two sides can meet in the middle, I could foresee a three-year deal that carries an AAV of $4.5 million. It would be on the lower end of the netminders in that table listed earlier, so that wouldn’t eat too much into the Leafs’ books. This is especially the case with the cap expected to take massive leaps over the next few years, with this hypothetical deal looking like a bargain by the end of it.

With that being said, if Stolarz’s camp demands a larger pay raise or won’t be willing to extend now, then it would be in the Leafs’ best interests to let it play out. They also have Dennis Hildeby locked up for the next three years, and presuming he takes the next steps in his game, then it would lessen the need for keeping Stolarz around long-term. Though that is far from a guarantee, and the Leafs surely know they have a good thing going with Stolarz right now.

If the two sides are committed to keeping the relationship going (and they are based on the reports of commencing discussions), then getting a deal done is paramount. Something in the range of 3X$4.5M could be the sweet spot for Stolarz and the Leafs.