Disproving the Improving

So, I’m looking for things to write about today. At the time, it was about 9:30 AM in Vancouver, 12:30 PM in Toronto, so the pickings were relatively slim on a slow news day. But then I stumbled upon an amazing post while going through the new queue on /r/leafs. Or as Reddit would call it, “this gem”. Here’s a thorough analysis.

Oh sweet! We can talk about how getting outshot 65 times a season is a bad strategy. Or how not scoring more than three regulation goals in a game after February probably won’t work. Or how the team had no fourth line, no backup plan once the goalies got hurt, no means of managing the minutes of their defencemen, and made a bunch of counter-productive roster moves.

Or how the team has no proper offensive zone breakout, poorly uses an already bad dump and chase method that leads to a lot of icings, and goes into shutdown mode when they aren’t far enough ahead (read: almost any score) to do so. Basically, Randy Carlyle is a thing and he’s still around. I can keep going, but we all know that there was a lot wrong with this team.

I mean, this wasn’t a sudden dagger to the heart, but sure, positives. Phil Kessel is awesome, Jake Gardiner is awesome, Nazem Kadri is awesome, the Leafs have good goaltenders, they’ve brought in bottom six players who can actually play hockey, and the new assistant coaches seem like good choices.

Oh boy, it’s a Tyler Bozak article. Well, he did have an improved offensive year last season, and I dislike management’s commitment to him moreso than I actually dislike him, so I’m open to hear what’s about to be said. Carry on, William!

…this is going to get ugly.

He did! Full props to Bozak for his much improved season. Now, I don’t know how much stock I’d put into him maintaining that sort of result; it’s rare for a player to break out so significantly and maintain it, especially when attached to a career high shooting percentage (near the top of the league), and a career high on-ice shooting percentage (very near the top of the league). These are two incredibly hard numbers to maintain year to year, especially OISH%.

This isn’t true. If you haven’t read this post from last year, you should. Particularly section #2. Anyway, since then, Bozak has increased his career 5v5 points without Kessel from 8 to 11, in 675 minutes played (0.98 pts/60, and the equivalent of about 39 games at his current first-line ice time). This year, Phil Kessel had a higher CF% with Nazem Kadri than with Bozak, though the sample was limited. Bozak had the higher GF%, but again, shooting percentages come into play. 

In any event, this year was a step in the right direction, but at best, it’s a step from “actually makes Kessel worse” to “about even, maybe better in lucky situations”.

This makes no sense. Before we throw Bozak into the mix, O’Reilly and Callahan aren’t even remotely similar players. ROR plays centre, Callahan plays RW. ROR is a lights out, top end possession player on a consistent basis, despite being put in tough situations. Callahan plays easier situations and is decent to below average at driving the play. Callahan is physical, ROR relies on positional play. I can keep going, but the point is, they’re not even comparable to each other.

Mix in Tyler Bozak, and we have a big mess.

Callahan and Bozak have provided firepower once in their career. O’Reilly has been on a 3 year incremental upswing. Getting minutes doesn’t mean you’re particularly effective at your role. As well, Bozak and Callahan are 28 and 29 years old. That isn’t the “younger side of things”, nor is it close to O’Reilly at 23.

That’s great, except for the fact that the Avalanche opted for arbitration and as such, did not have to qualify him at 6.5 million dollars. Even still, a 60 point, 23 year old centre who drives play and doesn’t get into penalty trouble is probably worth that much. But most importantly, again, there is no qualifying offer involved.

If you opt for minute-based production rates rather than games (remember, Colorado is a magical place where Paul Statsny existed and Matt Duchene still does, lowering average TOI), they’re both at 2.42, with O’Reilly being slightly better. So there’s that. Though, in fairness, Bozak fared better at 5 on 5 this year.

So, even this guy knows that Callahan isn’t actually comparable to the other subjects.

While Bozak’s contract is probably better than Callahan’s, I don’t think that it’s fair to say that he offers better bang for buck in any sense other than “dollars per point”. You may say that’s important; but value in offensive players is not linear. If it was, Sidney Crosby would be considered hilariously overpaid. You pay a premium for premium players, and O’Reilly is definitely one of those guys.

This isn’t even a hit on Bozak. He’s obviously not going to reject a situation that is advantageous to his playing career and financial status, and realistically, he’s getting paid a fair price for the minutes that he logs, even if he’s not particularly great at doing stuff when he logs them. But acknowledging that he’s not the solution on the top line is something for the coaching staff and management to address. 

What this actually is, is a shot at a lazy article, that fails to look past a very thin tip of an iceberg when presenting it’s argument. There’s statements that have been proven to be untrue, there’s some awful comparables, and they all come to a point that is completely irrelevant.

I mean, there’s several weaknesses – every player has multiple. But at least you made a bit of sense to close off.