Lou Lamoriello and Kyle Dubas are the perfect metaphor for old school vs. new school analysis in the Toronto media. Every time a move that appears to be smart and calculated is made, the bloggers immediately assume, it’s a Dubas move, and every time they make a move that is focused on character and experience, it’s a Lou move. This has created the illusion that Lou is terrible, and Dubas is amazing.

And this debate will only heat up, as the end of the season approaches, and Lou’s contract expires, the Leafs will need to decide who will be the GM going forward.

When Lou was hired, he said that if Dubas isn’t ready, it’s his fault. But, will it actually be his fault, or is it going to be hard to persuade Lou to step down, and Dubas will get kicked to the curb as a result. It’s hard to see that happening, as they extended Dubas for two more years over the summer, but it’s hard to see Lou stepping down and taking an advisory role. After all, he did that in New Jersey, and didn’t even last three months before he leaped at another GM job.

Well, it’s time to take a deep dive, and see who really is better: the “wise” old man, or the young boy with fresh ideas. To do this, I’ll be evaluating almost all of their moves that affect their NHL roster.

Now, the hard part is that the Leafs act as more of a team than a sole power. So, Lou probably isn’t behind all of the moves, but it’s safe to assume that he contributed to most of them. This will more be looking at all the moves that happened under their watch, assuming that they had a strong influence in making them.

Another question you may be asking: how do you evaluate Dubas if he’s never been the actual GM? Well, in his case, i’m going to evaluate all the moves that occurred after he was hired until Lou was hired. I’m doing this because after Dubas hired, there was a philosophical change in a lot of the moves the Leafs made. So, while Nonis was the GM, he seemed to have very little influence and power, since Shanahan seemed to be planning on firing him regardless.

As for Mark Hunter, he seems to have more focus on the scouting side, which I won’t be looking too much in to, aside from the draft, which I’ll discuss more when I get there.

Also, credit to good content boy Jon Steitzer, or Yakov Mironov, for the lovely header.

Before I get started on each GM’s moves, let’s look specifically at the team, and how they joined the organization, to see how much our two “opponents” contributed to the team.

Auston Matthews – drafted by Lou Lamoriello

William Nylander – drafted by Dave Nonis

Mitch Marner – drafted by Mark Hunter/Kyle Dubas

Nazem Kadri – drafted by Brian Burke

James van Riemsdyk – acquired by Brian Burke

Tyler Bozak – signed by Brian Burke

Patrick Marleau – signed by Lou Lamoriello

Leo Komarov – drafted by John Ferguson Jr.

Connor Brown – drafted by Brian Burke

Zach Hyman – acquired by Kyle Dubas/Mark Hunter

Matt Martin – signed by Lou Lamoriello

Dominic Moore – signed by Lou Lamoriello

Kasperi Kapanen – acquired by Kyle Dubas/Mark Hunter

Josh Leivo – drafted by Brian Burke

Joffrey Lupul – acquired by Brian Burke

Nathan Horton – acquired by Dave Nonis/Kyle Dubas

Eric Fehr – acquired by Lou Lamoriello

Jake Gardiner – acquired by Brian Burke

Morgan Rielly – drafted by Brian Burke

Nikita Zaitsev – signed by Lou Lamoriello (although he had toured Toronto the year prior, so it might be hard to pin Lou on that alone)

Ron Hainsey – signed by Lou Lamoriello

Andreas Borgman – signed by Lou Lamoriello

Roman Polak – signed by Lou Lamoriello (although technically acquired by Nonis)

Connor Carrick – acquired by Lou Lamoriello

Martin Marincin – acquired by Kyle Dubas/Mark Hunter

Frederik Andersen – acquired by Lou Lamoriello

Curtis McElhinney – claimed by Lou Lamoriello

So, aside from Andersen, Marner, and Matthews, both Dubas and Lamoriello haven’t contributed to the core of the team. Most of their additions were the depth pieces, and there is a noted difference between the depth players they added. Dubas brought in Hyman, Kapanen, and Marincin, all who were young at the time of acquiring and had lots of potential. Lamoriello brought in Marleau, Martin, Moore, Fehr, Zaitsev, Hainsey, Borgman, Polak, Carrick, and McElhinney, most of them veterans who are past their prime or never had a prime. Of course, that’s not the case for all of them, as Zaitsev, Carrick, and Borgman have proven to all be great additions to the blueline with bright futures ahead.

But, it does show a trend that lives up to the “Dubas makes the smart moves, Lou makes the dumb moves” meme.

 

For Dubas, I’ll be assessing all of the moves the Toronto Maple Leafs made from his hiring in July 22, 2014 until July 23, 2015, when Lou Lamoriello was hired. The goal is to see how well the Leafs operated under his watch, regardless if he was behind them all. I won’t touch on all of them, mostly just saying if the move was good or bad.

–Cody Franson re-signed – $3.3 million, 1 year – good signing, considering Franson has always been an analytics darling

–David Booth signed – $1.1 million, 1 year – good signing, Booth was a low risk depth signing, didn’t provide much offense, but drove play

–James Reimer re-signed – $2.3 million, 2 years – good signing, Reimer was solid and consistent over the two seasons for a cheap price

–Daniel Winnik signed – $1.3 million, 1 year – good signing, Winnik drove play, and was even a solid playmaker that season

–Jake Gardiner re-signed – $4.05 million, 5 years – good signing, locked Gardiner long term on a cheap deal that looks amazing right now

–Richard Panik claimed – good claim, good job to get a young depth player for no cost, produced a solid amount in Toronto for cheap

–David Broll and Carter Ashton traded for a 2016 7th round pick – good trade, while they didn’t get the pick, they got roster spots cleared from two players who weren’t good

–Cody Franson and Mike Santorelli traded for a 2015 1st round pick, Olli Jokinen, and Brendan Leipsic – good trade, got rid of two expiring contracts for assets

–Daniel Winnik traded for Zach Sill, 2016 2nd round pick, and 2015 4th round pick – good trade, got rid of an expiring contract for assets, great return for Winnik

–David Clarkson traded for Nathan Horton – good trade, got rid of a terrible contract for a contract that could be put on LTIR, saving a lot of cap space

–Tim Erixon claimed – Decent move, had shown to be a solid play driving defenseman, didn’t really get a big chance in Toronto

–Olli Jokinen traded for a 2016 6th round pick and Joakin Lindstrom – good trade, got rid of an expiring contract for assets

–Korbinian Holzer traded for Eric Brewer and 2015 5th round pick – good trade, got rid of an expiring contract for assets

–Casey Bailey signed – $912,500, 2 years – good signing, cheap gamble on a college free agent

–Nikita Soshnikov signed – $925,000, 3 years – good signing, became a solid depth player on the Leafs last year, and still is

–Greg McKegg traded for Zach Hyman and a 2017 7th round pick – good trade, McKegg wasn’t really going to pan out, and the Leafs got an NHL calibre forward in Hyman AND a pick

–Petter Granberg re-signed – bad signing, Granberg proved to be ineffective at the NHL level before this contract was signed, although he was lost on waivers not long into the season

–Tim Erixon re-signed – good signing, solid depth piece for the Leafs, although he didn’t last long on the team

–2016 NHL Draft – great draft, the Leafs seemed to have a focus on drafting skilled players, while also trading down for more picks when the opportunity arose. Marner has been spectacular at the NHL level, while Dermott, Bracco, Nielsen, and Timashov all have good potential. Hit on 5/9 picks so far.

–Trading Down the 1st Round Pick, Passing on Travis Konecny – bad trade, while trading down got them more picks, becoming Travis Dermott, Jeremy Bracco, and Martins Dzierkals, none of them will reach the level that Konecny is already at

–Brad Ross and a 2015 4th round pick traded for Martin Marincin – good trade, Marincin has shown to be good at suppressing shots and denying zone entries, although he hasn’t been given a large opportunity

–Mark Arcobello signed – $1.1 million, 1 year – good deal, cheap deal for a player who has shown glimpses of producing

–Phil Kessel, Tyler Biggs, Tim Erixon, and 2016 2nd round pick traded for 2016 1st & 3rd round picks, Nick Spaling, Kasperi Kapanen, and Scott Harrington – bad deal, while they got a solid prospect in Kapanen and a 1st and 3rd, they had to give up a 2nd and retain $1.2 million on Kessel’s contract

–Richard Panik re-signed – $975,000, 1 year– good deal, cheap contract for a depth player with potential

–Daniel Winnik signed – $2.25 million, 2 year – good deal, got a solid defensive forward familiar with the team for cheap at a short term

–PA Parenteau signed – $1.5 million, 1 year – good deal, cheap, low risk contract for a player with a history of producing and driving play

–Matt Hunwick signed – $1.2 million, 2 years – good deal, solid defenseman who can drive play in a reduced role, but was used improperly during his time in Toronto

–Byron Froese signed – $575,000, 2 years – good deal, got a cheap, young player who was a solid fourth line center in 2015-16

–Nazem Kadri re-signed – $4.1 million, 1 year – good deal, gave Kadri a chance to prove himself, and it worked in the Leafs favour, considering he had an unlucky season that lowered his value

–Shawn Matthias signed – $2.3 million, 1 year – good deal, got a solid play driver on a cheap short term deal

–Martin Marincin signed – $700,000, 1 year – good deal, cheap for a depth defenseman

–Jamie Devane traded for Taylor Beck – good trade, got rid of an enforcer for a decent young player

–Taylor Beck signed – $875,000, 1 year – good deal, get a young player with some potential on a cheap deal

So, aside from a couple pierces in the armour, and a massive stab wound from the Kessel trade, the Leafs were practically flawless in the Dubas era. Obviously he had a bit of work to do when it came to making major deals, but just about everything else was either a great move, or was indifferent, but didn’t even matter in the end.

Dubas’ Score – 27/30 (90%)

For Lou, I’ll be evaluating all the moves that the Toronto Maple Leafs made from his hiring on July 23, 2015 to, well, today. While he may not be behind all of the moves, the goal is to find out how well the team did under his watch, because a quality GM should probably stop a move that he thinks will be bad.

–Jonathan Bernier re-signed – $4.15 million, 2 years – bad signing, too pricey for a goalie who was as good or worse than Reimer, who was making $2.3 million

–Chris Gibson, Tom Nilsson, Taylor Beck, Carter Verhaeghe, and Matt Finn traded for Michael Grabner – good trade, none of the these players were going to amount to much, and while Grabner wasn’t amazing for Toronto, it was mostly due to poor luck. Also, it freed 4 roster spots.

–Brad Boyes signed – $700,000, 1 year – good deal, they got a solid depth scorer who drove play for really cheap

–Frank Corrado claimed – good move, Corrado was a young defenseman with upside, and while he didn’t get much playing time with Toronto (not that anyone noticed, though), he was solid when in the lineup

–Richard Panik traded for Jeremy Morin – bad trade, Panik has flourished in Chicago, while Morin didn’t amount to much in Toronto

–Dion Phaneuf, Matt Frattin, Casey Bailey, Ryan Rupert, and Cody Donaghey traded for Tobias Lindberg, Milan Michalek, Colin Greening, Jared Cowen, and a 2017 2nd round pick – great trade, they got rid of Phaneuf’s salary without retaining any, and even freed up a roster spot in the deal. They also managed to get a prospect and a pick in the deal, and while they had to take on more cap hit at the time, all of it is gone now, and Greening actually turned out to be a solid addition to the Marlies.

–Shawn Matthias traded for Colin Smith and a 2016 4th round pick – good deal, got assets for a player on an expiring contract

–Roman Polak and Nick Spaling traded for Raffi Torres, a 2017 2nd round pick, and a 2018 2nd round pick – steal of a trade, got rid of two expiring contracts of not very good players for two 2nd round picks

–James Reimer and Jeremy Morin traded for Alex Stalock, Ben Smith, and a 2018 4th round pick – bad trade, got very little return for a goalie that was putting up amazing numbers that season, and could have used as their goalie going forward

–Daniel Winnik and a 2016 5th round pick traded for Connor Carrick, Brooks Laich, and a 2016 2nd round pick – great trade, dealt a player on an expiring contract in exchange for taking on a bad contract, and got a 2nd round pick and a solid defensive prospect who has panned out well thus far

–Nazem Kadri re-signed – $4.5 million, 6 years – great deal, locked up a young center for well below his value for six years, has looked great so far and we’re barely into year two

–Morgan Rielly re-signed – $5 million, 6 years – good deal, locked up a young defenseman with some potential to be elite, and has looked great so far

–Nikita Zaitsev signed – $925,000, 1 year – good deal, got a defenseman who made the team out of camp and was solid all year, and produced well

–A 2016 1st round pick and a 2017 2nd round pick traded for Frederik Andersen – bad deal, as great as Freddy’s been, the trade was a bit of an overpayment, especially since we traded an arguably as good or better goalie in Reimer for table scraps

–Frederik Andersen signed – $5 million, 5 years – great deal, locked up an above average starter to the price of an above average starter, all during the prime of his career

–2016 NHL Draft – bad draft. While they got Matthews on it, that was a gimme. After that, they more often than not went for size and older players, passing on skilled players with higher upside like DeBrincat and Abramov. While they got Carl Grundstrom, Joseph Woll, and Adam Brooks in this draft, the rest look like picks that won’t amount to much. However, it’s also too early to tell. Only hit on 4/11 picks so far.

–Scott Harrington and a 2017 5th round pick traded for Kerby Rychel – good trade. They got a forward with decent upside and didn’t give up much, although Rychel hasn’t cracked the Leafs yet (although this might be a Shanahan move, as Adam Laskaris and myself learned that day)

–Matt Martin signed – $2.5 million, 4 years – bad signing, locking up depth players for more than two years and over $2 million is never a good move, especially when you do both

–Roman Polak signed – $2.25 million, 1 year – bad signing, Polak is a slow defenseman, and is terrible at shot suppresion

–Jonathan Bernier traded for 2017 pick – good trade, got rid of Bernier’s contract, and freed up a roster spot for another goalie

–Josh Leivo re-signed – $612,500, 2 years – good signing, got a young, depth scoring winger for cheap for two more years

–Connor Carrick re-signed – $750,000, 2 years – good signing, got a young defenseman locked up for cheap with an opportunity to prove himself

–Frank Corrado re-signed – $600,000, 1 year – good signing, got a young defenseman signed for a year for a cheap

–Peter Holland re-signed – $1.3 million, 1 year – good signing, got a depth center on a one year deal for cheap

–Martin Marincin re-signed – $1.25 million, 2 years – good signing, got a young defenseman signed for cheap

–Jhonas Enroth signed – $750,000 million, 1 year – good signing, got a goalie with a history of performing well in a backup role for cheap, even if it didn’t pan out

–Seth Griffith claimed – good claim, got a young player with some upside for nothing

–Ben Smith claimed – bad claim, Smith was terrible in just about every facet of the game aside from faceoffs

–Peter Holland traded for a conditional 2018 6th round pick – bad trade, Holland was solid, and they gave him away for nothing, especially when they’re center depth was weak

–Curtis McElhinney claimed – bad claim, McElhinney is a goalie with a history of poor performance, and Enroth wasn’t given a fair shot

–Jhonas Enroth traded for a 2018 7th round pick – bad trade, Enroth wasn’t given a fair shot, and got almost nothing for him

–Alexey Marchenko claimed – bad claim, Marchenko wasn’t a very good defenseman, and was rarely played, and had two years left on his deal

–Byron Froese and a 2017 2nd round pick traded for Brian Boyle – good trade, helped improve the Leafs in their one position of need, a fourth line center

–Frank Corrado traded for a 2017 4th round pick, Eric Fehr, and Steven Oleksy – bad trade, taking on Fehr’s contract wasn’t worth a 2017 4th round pick and losing Corrado

–Nikita Zaitsev re-signed – $4.5 million, 7 years – bad signing, Zaitsev was solid, but not worth that much money for that term

–Ben Smith re-signed – $650,000, 1 year – bad signing, Smith has no qualities that make him capable of playing at the NHL level

–Andreas Borgman signed – $925,000, 2 years – good signing, Borgman made the team out of camp and has been solid thus far, with some upside

–2017 NHL Draft – too early to really say, but aside from Timothy Liljegren, there’s not a whole lot to take away from this draft

–Ron Hainsey signed – $3 million, 2 years – good deal, short term, and Hainsey has looked solid thus far, although it could drop off at any moment

–Curtis McElhinney re-signed – $850,000, 2 years – bad deal, McElhinney is a bad goalie, and definitely didn’t need a second year

–Dominic Moore signed – $1 million, 1 year – bad deal, while Moore is an improvement over Smith, it’s not by much

–Patrick Marleau signed – $6.25 million, 3 years – I’m going to hate myself for saying this, but bad deal. A bit pricey for a player in the twilight of his career, and for a year too long. He’s been great so far, but in the long term, it’s a bit scary

–Zach Hyman re-signed – $2.25 million, 4 years – good deal, Hyman is a solid defensive forward with some upside, so locking him up long term for cheap is a good idea

–Alexey Marchenko’s contract terminated – good move, Marchenko had no fit on the Leafs, and was just extra money on a tight cap situation

–Connor Brown re-signed – $2.1 million, 3 years – good deal, got a 20 goal scorer locked for really cheap with decent term

–Tobias Lindberg and a 2018 6th round pick traded for Calvin Pickard – great trade, improved their goalie depth, which was questionable after Freddy, and gave up very little in return

–Roman Polak re-signed – $1.1 million, 1 year – like last time, bad deal. Even though it’s cheap, a player with no NHL skills anymore shouldn’t be signed.

Lou got off to a hot start, but slowly started to show that he’s actually just average to bad. It’s hard to tell what moves were him, but he let a lot of bad moves happen while he’s in charge. While he was good with the big deals, his micromanagement abilities are very, very bad.

Lou’s Score – 27/46 (58.7%)

 

Based on the information available, Kyle Dubas has proven to be a much more efficient GM than Lou Lamoriello. They actually made the same number of good moves (27), except Lamoriello made more transactions than Dubas, and has been around twice as long.

Dubas made very few slip ups when he played a larger role on the team in 2014/15, except for the Phil Kessel trade. However, Lamoriello was very good at making the bigger trades, so Dubas has probably learned how to handle those better now. Meanwhile, Lou is terrible at micromanaging, while Dubas is practically flawless at it. However, the difference between Dubas and Lamoriello’s flaws is that Dubas can easily learn how to change his, while Lou probably won’t bother learning how to change flaws at his age.

So, what should the Leafs do?

Based on the evidence, Dubas should probably be the GM going forward. He tends to make smart and well-thought moves, and usually wins on most of them. Ideally, Lou gets a “promotion” as an advisor, and can still help Dubas if his few deficiencies pop up again, but considering he didn’t last long doing that in New Jersey, he’ll probably retire. My one concern with Dubas is we have yet to see him take control of a winning team, so there’s that slight unknown factor, but I doubt it will be of any problem.

Is it likely? Probably. During the summer, Dubas was in talks with Colorado about potentially working there, but Shanahan shut that down quickly, and gave him an extension. I doubt that he would go through all that trouble just to let Lou remain GM. My one concern is if the Leafs have a really good year, and the team credits it’s success to Lou, even though he did very little contribution to the actual team (in fact, Burke did a lot of it), and then they keep him in the role.

So, there you have it. Based on evidence, Dubas looks like the more ideal candidate than Lamoriello to take control of this team going forward. Hopefully, Dubas is “ready for the job” in Lou’s eyes, and he gives him the role.

Of course, there’s always Mark Hunter…