<p>The Leafs are doing the unthinkable, they are dominating a first round playoff series. Dominating is a somewhat subjective term as two overtime wins certainly point to close games. Getting outshot, outhit, out-Corsi&#8217;d by the Senators makes dominated a stretch and instead you could say that Anthony Stolarz is in the process of goalie-ing, but that&#8217;s not entirely accurate either. Unquestionably, there is still room for improvement with the Leafs, but considering the Senators swept the Leafs in the regular season, viewing the results so far as anything less than the best case scenario seems like an unnecessary exercise in pessimism.</p>
<p>Here are a few stray thoughts before Game Four:</p>
<h2>Looking ahead</h2>
<p>I&#8217;m going to start by saying there is a danger in the Maple Leafs looking beyond Saturday night&#8217;s game. The Senators have proven this year they can beat the Leafs, they&#8217;ve played them into overtime the past couple of games, they are still a threat. Toronto needs to close things off and recognize that there is a benefit to getting as much rest as possible before facing either the Panthers or Lightning. Through three games each of the Leafs&#8217; top four defencemen have a combination of more than 20 hits taken and blocked shots. Some time to heal would be beneficial, especially since their next opponent is likely to go even harder on them.</p>
<p>While the Leafs focus should be on quickly moving on from the Senators, there seems to be growing likelihood that the Panthers will be the second round opponent. Florida is up two games over Tampa and they&#8217;ve been quite comfortable in how they&#8217;ve been beating the Lightning. They also have the benefit of the next couple of games being at home. Preparing for the Panthers seems like it will be the smart course of action for the Leafs and one that certainly feels like the worst case scenario.</p>
<p>The Leafs swept the Lightning this season, and while the Senators are proving that season sweeps don&#8217;t mean much, they certainly looked like the preferred opponent. The Panthers are further proving that by very much starting off the playoffs looking like they want to repeat as Cup Champions. The Leafs going 1-3-0 against the Panthers isn&#8217;t ideal, but two of those games being end of the season and the Leafs&#8217; toughest loss to Florida coming early in the year without Matthews out of the lineup offers some hope that it will be a bit of a toss up.</p>
<p>No matter the outcome of Game Three in the Battle of Florida, the Leafs are further along in their series and have the potential to be rested. The Panthers also have played a lot more hockey than any other team over (except the Oilers) in the past year and have key players like Matthew Tkachuk and Aaron Ekblad who might not be at 100%. There&#8217;s also something to facing the Senators in the first round for the Leafs as they are built like a lite version of the Panthers and the path to success against Florida might be consistent with what the Leafs are doing rather than adjusting to the different style played by the Lightning.</p>
<p>While it&#8217;s danger to count eggs before they hatched and to land on a preferred opponent for the next round, minds wandering in the direction of &#8220;what&#8217;s next&#8221; seems only natural at this point, and while the Panthers (or the Lightning) might be a tough out, the Leafs look like they will be in the good position to face what comes next compared to their last second round appearance.</p>
<h2>Some notes on Round One so far&#8230;</h2>
<p><strong>On Holmberg&#8230;</strong></p>
<p>Throughout the regular season Pontus Holmberg was amongst the league leaders in drawing penalties. The first three games of the playoffs have been a continuation of that success with three penalties drawn in three games without taking a single penalty. Holmberg is a magnet as a not so speedy bottom six forward with tendencies to be his line&#8217;s puck carrier and at a time of year when special teams matter the most, he&#8217;s been a big part of Toronto&#8217;s success.</p>
<p>When there are a lot of things that are fairly equal about Holmberg and Kampf, the ability to draw penalties is the difference maker that keeps him in the lineup and unless Craig Berube feels the need for a penalty killer, I can&#8217;t imagine there will be a change made.</p>
<p><strong>On Matthews and Marner&#8230;</strong></p>
<p>Don&#8217;t look now but Marner is averaging two points per game and Matthews is right behind him at five points through three games. Throw in the fact that both players have been playing critical minutes on both sides of special teams and Matthews having a 9-3 hits to hits taken ratio, and the two star players are putting in work to eliminate the narrative around them.</p>
<p>As good as Jake Sanderson is, going up against him has been a favourable situation to going up against an established veteran with a heavy body. It&#8217;s not that Sanderson and the Sens haven&#8217;t played hard against them, but at this point there is probably a sense that they still have more space to work with than they might feel in the next round against bluelines built more around punishment than puck movement.</p>
<p><strong>On goal scoring balance&#8230;</strong></p>
<p>Through three games the Leafs have nine different goal scorers. Four of those goals have come from the blueline but Max Domi is the only bottom six forward that has found the back of the net.</p>
<p>The fact that Tavares and Knies are two of the three Leafs with multiple goals so far (Rielly being the other) shouldn&#8217;t be lost on people. The net presence guys have been getting it done and all four of those goals have been on the powerplay.</p>
<p>As for Rielly, it&#8217;s kind of interesting that he is the 5v5 goal leader, and is actually tied with Matthews for the team lead with three 5v5 points as well. Even strength has always been Rielly&#8217;s bread and butter and Ottawa was struggled with dealing with him as essentially a fourth forward and as threat to jumpstart a play out of the Leafs end. Even if the difficult level goes up next round, Rielly showing confidence in his game is encouraging.</p>
<h2>Try not to care about shot differentials</h2>
<p>Hi, my name is Jon, and I value Corsi and Expected Goal metrics.</p>
<p>In the past they have been comforting in Leafs losses and were a way of clinging to hope for the future. At the very least they were a source of reducing panic when things were going bad and when the Leafs weren&#8217;t making changes you could justify why the status quo was maintained.</p>
<p>In Round One the Leafs shot differentials have been terrible. It hasn&#8217;t really mattered. In fact, the Leafs shot differentials were pretty bad all season and there has been plenty of time to prepare for this.</p>
<p>On the surface it seems like a return to Randy Carlyle hockey and I&#8217;m not sure anyone wanted that, but in reality it is a team that is capable of playing offensive dominant hockey just becoming more selective about when they push. It can be frustrating and the numbers don&#8217;t look good, but there is also a multiyear sample size that says the Leafs can push at the right time but also plenty of evidence that shows that things were going excessively bad in their own end. This shift to negative differentials has worked so far and even if it is resulting in more shots, over the course of the season both Stolarz and Woll have demonstrated they can handle what is coming their way.</p>
<p>While the Leafs have seen an increase in their Corsi against this year compared to last, they&#8217;ve experienced a 200+ event drop in combined Corsi for and against. The decline in offensive aggressiveness only yielded an increase in goal differential over the season in one more 5v5 goal, but at the same time this year was always supposed to be about trying something different.</p>
<p>Craig Berube&#8217;s approach is notably different than Sheldon Keefe&#8217;s and through three playoff games giving up some control seems to be working. It&#8217;s just a matter if it is sustainable when the level of competition improves and how long Stolarz can continue to be otherworldly.</p>


The Leafs are doing the unthinkable, they are dominating a first round playoff series. Dominating is a somewhat subjective term as two overtime wins certainly point to close games. Getting outshot, outhit, out-Corsi'd by the Senators makes dominated a stretch and instead you could say that Anthony Stolarz is in the process of goalie-ing, but that's not entirely accurate either. Unquestionably, there is still room for improvement with the Leafs, but considering the Senators swept the Leafs in the regular season, viewing the results so far as anything less than the best case scenario seems like an unnecessary exercise in pessimism.

Here are a few stray thoughts before Game Four:
<h2>Looking ahead</h2>
I'm going to start by saying there is a danger in the Maple Leafs looking beyond Saturday night's game. The Senators have proven this year they can beat the Leafs, they've played them into overtime the past couple of games, they are still a threat. Toronto needs to close things off and recognize that there is a benefit to getting as much rest as possible before facing either the Panthers or Lightning. Through three games each of the Leafs' top four defencemen have a combination of more than 20 hits taken and blocked shots. Some time to heal would be beneficial, especially since their next opponent is likely to go even harder on them.

While the Leafs focus should be on quickly moving on from the Senators, there seems to be growing likelihood that the Panthers will be the second round opponent. Florida is up two games over Tampa and they've been quite comfortable in how they've been beating the Lightning. They also have the benefit of the next couple of games being at home. Preparing for the Panthers seems like it will be the smart course of action for the Leafs and one that certainly feels like the worst case scenario.

The Leafs swept the Lightning this season, and while the Senators are proving that season sweeps don't mean much, they certainly looked like the preferred opponent. The Panthers are further proving that by very much starting off the playoffs looking like they want to repeat as Cup Champions. The Leafs going 1-3-0 against the Panthers isn't ideal, but two of those games being end of the season and the Leafs' toughest loss to Florida coming early in the year without Matthews out of the lineup offers some hope that it will be a bit of a toss up.

No matter the outcome of Game Three in the Battle of Florida, the Leafs are further along in their series and have the potential to be rested. The Panthers also have played a lot more hockey than any other team over (except the Oilers) in the past year and have key players like Matthew Tkachuk and Aaron Ekblad who might not be at 100%. There's also something to facing the Senators in the first round for the Leafs as they are built like a lite version of the Panthers and the path to success against Florida might be consistent with what the Leafs are doing rather than adjusting to the different style played by the Lightning.

While it's danger to count eggs before they hatched and to land on a preferred opponent for the next round, minds wandering in the direction of "what's next" seems only natural at this point, and while the Panthers (or the Lightning) might be a tough out, the Leafs look like they will be in the good position to face what comes next compared to their last second round appearance.
<h2>Some notes on Round One so far...</h2>
<strong>On Holmberg...</strong>

Throughout the regular season Pontus Holmberg was amongst the league leaders in drawing penalties. The first three games of the playoffs have been a continuation of that success with three penalties drawn in three games without taking a single penalty. Holmberg is a magnet as a not so speedy bottom six forward with tendencies to be his line's puck carrier and at a time of year when special teams matter the most, he's been a big part of Toronto's success.

When there are a lot of things that are fairly equal about Holmberg and Kampf, the ability to draw penalties is the difference maker that keeps him in the lineup and unless Craig Berube feels the need for a penalty killer, I can't imagine there will be a change made.

<strong>On Matthews and Marner...</strong>

Don't look now but Marner is averaging two points per game and Matthews is right behind him at five points through three games. Throw in the fact that both players have been playing critical minutes on both sides of special teams and Matthews having a 9-3 hits to hits taken ratio, and the two star players are putting in work to eliminate the narrative around them.

As good as Jake Sanderson is, going up against him has been a favourable situation to going up against an established veteran with a heavy body. It's not that Sanderson and the Sens haven't played hard against them, but at this point there is probably a sense that they still have more space to work with than they might feel in the next round against bluelines built more around punishment than puck movement.

<strong>On goal scoring balance...</strong>

Through three games the Leafs have nine different goal scorers. Four of those goals have come from the blueline but Max Domi is the only bottom six forward that has found the back of the net.

The fact that Tavares and Knies are two of the three Leafs with multiple goals so far (Rielly being the other) shouldn't be lost on people. The net presence guys have been getting it done and all four of those goals have been on the powerplay.

As for Rielly, it's kind of interesting that he is the 5v5 goal leader, and is actually tied with Matthews for the team lead with three 5v5 points as well. Even strength has always been Rielly's bread and butter and Ottawa was struggled with dealing with him as essentially a fourth forward and as threat to jumpstart a play out of the Leafs end. Even if the difficult level goes up next round, Rielly showing confidence in his game is encouraging.
<h2>Try not to care about shot differentials</h2>
Hi, my name is Jon, and I value Corsi and Expected Goal metrics.

In the past they have been comforting in Leafs losses and were a way of clinging to hope for the future. At the very least they were a source of reducing panic when things were going bad and when the Leafs weren't making changes you could justify why the status quo was maintained.

In Round One the Leafs shot differentials have been terrible. It hasn't really mattered. In fact, the Leafs shot differentials were pretty bad all season and there has been plenty of time to prepare for this.

On the surface it seems like a return to Randy Carlyle hockey and I'm not sure anyone wanted that, but in reality it is a team that is capable of playing offensive dominant hockey just becoming more selective about when they push. It can be frustrating and the numbers don't look good, but there is also a multiyear sample size that says the Leafs can push at the right time but also plenty of evidence that shows that things were going excessively bad in their own end. This shift to negative differentials has worked so far and even if it is resulting in more shots, over the course of the season both Stolarz and Woll have demonstrated they can handle what is coming their way.

While the Leafs have seen an increase in their Corsi against this year compared to last, they've experienced a 200+ event drop in combined Corsi for and against. The decline in offensive aggressiveness only yielded an increase in goal differential over the season in one more 5v5 goal, but at the same time this year was always supposed to be about trying something different.

Craig Berube's approach is notably different than Sheldon Keefe's and through three playoff games giving up some control seems to be working. It's just a matter if it is sustainable when the level of competition improves and how long Stolarz can continue to be otherworldly.

Looking ahead, looking at what has gone right, and ignoring the numbers: Leaflets

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