Mike Babcock on William Nylander: “He knows he’s getting in his own way. He’s told me exactly what he has to do.” Sees moving him to fourth line as helping him out by taking some pressure off.
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Babcock is putting Nylander in a position to fail
Photo credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 20, 2019, 12:13 EST
When the Leafs hit the ice for Sunday’s morning skate it was reported that Nylander will be on the fourth line for the game against the Arizona Coyotes – that’s not ideal.
Nylander is certainly in a slump, there’s no denying that, but when a player of his caliber is simply not putting the puck in the back of the net, it’s hard to justify demoting him. He’s not going to get any of that puck luck playing beside Frederik Gauthier and Par Lindholm.
Playing with better players, like Auston Matthews and Andreas Johnsson, almost guarantees Nylander to have better success. Matthews is in his own slump so that certainly does not help, but to come out of a slump you just need chances.
In terms of chances, Nylander has certainly seen his own level of scoring chances increase. His individual expected goals per hour is currently at 0.79 – not the best in the league but still surrounded by some elite talent. A little Canadian-born player by the name of Connor McDavid is generating individual expected goals at the exact same rate as Nylander. So should he be on the fourth line when his puck luck decreases?
Of course not, but it’s frustrating when a player that deserves to be towards the top of the Leafs’ scoring leaders is just not getting the right percentages.
Nylander is currently shooting at just 3%, a career-low by far. Just by that number alone, every single person should know that he is in a slump. Already at 30 goals, Brayden Point is being highly regarded as an elite player, but if his current shooting percentage (23.6%) was brought down to Nylander’s current shooting percentage, he would barely have four goals instead of 30.
When Babcock demotes Nylander to the fourth-line, it doesn’t send a positive message either.
Putting a player that is clearly struggling to just get the right bounces down at the bottom of the lineup is not going to fix any problem. But of course, Babcock makes it a mental thing.
Mike Babcock said Nylander thought things would come easier: "It’s not like he’s not trying, and it’s not like we’re not trying to help him. We’re doing all that, it’s just not going as good for him. Ideally [the fourth line move] will allow him to take some heat off himself"
Being on the fourth line will not “take the head off himself”, it might even add more fuel to the already surging anti-Nylander fire. I know this is traditionally what happens when a player isn’t producing – Marner had his own trip down there just last season – but the Leafs are drastically a better team with Nylander on the ice and Babcock is shoving that away.
Among active Leafs skaters, Nylander has the highest on-ice expected goals for percentage (xGF%) on the team. At 57.15%, the Leafs are completely running over their competition with Nylander out there – the other team isn’t seeing a ton of chances, but the Leafs offense is surging.
Even defensively, the Leafs are the better team with the now fourth-liner on the ice. At 2.16 xGA/60, the only other Leafs forward that suffocates the opposition’s offense better than when Nylander is on the ice is Frederik Gauthier.
Comically, Nylander’s replacement in Connor Brown has one of the worst on-ice xGF% among Leafs forwards, at 49.6. Meaning that the other team is getting better scoring chances than the Leafs when Brown is on the ice.
Understandably, no one expects this shift to be for long. Nylander is performing too well for this descent into horrible shooting luck to last beyond a couple weeks. If so, it would be monumentally terrible.
Everything everyone knows about percentages and average demonstrates that a Nylander surge in scoring is inevitable. His shooting percentage will rise by a couple of points and suddenly he’s on pace to have a 20-goal campaign. Babcock will take the credit for the surge because he gave him a spark on the fourth line.
That upcoming offensive production will most likely come sooner if Babcock just stayed the course and understood what was working. He isn’t sending any positive message to his players if as soon as they aren’t putting the puck in the back of the net, they’re demoted.
Hockey is the most random and luck-based sport; if a player is punished for not getting the right amount of luck on their side, then you’re shooting yourself in the foot.
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