The Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens will face off for the third time this season, in a matchup which will be nationally televised on Hockey Night in Canada.

While every matchup between these two rivals is compelling, this showdown comes at a particularly interesting time as the Canadiens are in the midst of a surprising push for a playoff berth. Montreal enters this matchup on an 8-1-1 tear and is only one point back of the Boston Bruins with two games in hand.

The Canadiens are priced as relatively short underdogs at +125, which is the closest oddsmakers have priced a Leafs-Canadiens matchup over the last two seasons.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

Toronto authored a strong response to its ugly three-game losing skid on Thursday evening, as it outshot a strong New Jersey Devils side 41-24 en route to a well-deserved overtime victory. The Leafs showed some strong resolve throughout the contest, as it erased three separate one-goal deficits, including Auston Matthews’ beautiful game-tying goal late in the third.

While Thursday’s game was collectively one of the team’s better performances in a while, it was also a great showing from Matthews in particular. It’s almost felt easy to forget this season just how dominant Matthews can be at his peak, and part of that comes down to the fact that he has been dealing with a lingering injury. Matthews has recorded four goals over the last four games, and did a great job of controlling play in tough matchups against the Devils on Thursday.

Jake McCabe made a strong return to the lineup, recording two assists and a +3 rating in 24:16 of time on ice. In 17:12 minutes together, McCabe and Chris Tanev held a 63.4 percent expected goal share.

The challenge for Toronto will now be to maintain that same level of urgency in this matchup versus a red-hot Canadiens side. I’ve talked a lot in these articles about how the analytics suggest the Leafs’ defensive play has fallen off considerably over the last 5-6 weeks, and I do think the numbers have told a relatively fair story about their defensive regression.

It’s not hard to argue the Leafs’ defensive ceiling is higher than we have seen of late either though, as they proved during their spectacular month of November.

Joseph Woll is expected to get the start in goal for Toronto. He holds a +11.1 GSAx rating and .907 save percentage in 23 appearances this season.

John Tavares and Anthony Stolarz will remain absent from the lineup in this matchup. Tavares has been placed on injured reserve after suffering a lower-body injury during Wednesday’s practice.

Everything seems to be clicking for head coach Martin St. Louis’ Canadiens side right now, as their 11-2-1 record over the last month is tied with the Edmonton Oilers for the best mark in the NHL. During those 14 games, they have averaged 3.64 goals for and allowed only 2.14 goals against.

While the Canadiens’ recent results would be impressive versus any slate of NHL opponents, they are particularly strong when you look at who they have defeated, as their schedule has been littered with teams priced by oddsmakers as betting favourites to win the Stanley Cup.

The underlying results from the Canadiens’ recent tear are also highly impressive, as during their 11-2-1 run they hold a 52.98 expected goal share, and have allowed only 25.28 shots against per 60.

The Canadiens’ defensive core is suddenly looking like a strength, after being an obvious flaw throughout most of the last two seasons. Lane Hutson is naturally drawing a ton of coverage for his excellent offensive play, but he has also already taken steps forward defensively compared to what we saw early on in his rookie season. Alexandre Carrier has been an excellent addition to the top-four, and has vastly improved the upside of the Canadiens blue-line.

Emil Heineman is expected to be the only regular missing from the lineup due to injury. Heineman’s play on arguably the best fourth line in hockey had been one reason for the Canadiens’ surprisingly strong results of late. In 182.1 minutes together, Heineman, Jake Evans and Joel Armia have outscored opponents 12-5.

It looks as though Juraj Slafkovsky will remain alongside Suzuki and Caufield on the top line in this matchup. While Slafkovsky’s play has been highly disappointing throughout much of this season, he was able to break through with a critical goal in Montreal’s 3-1 victory over the Dallas Stars on Thursday.

Samuel Montembeault has been confirmed as the Canadiens’ starting goaltender in this matchup. He holds a +9.5 GSAx rating and .900 save percentage in 34 appearances this season.

Whenever these rivals face-off the games seem to have a little extra juice, and tonight’s matchup comes at an especially compelling time.

The Canadiens have arguably been playing as well as anybody in the league of late, and will obviously be desperate to keep their strong play going as they take on their biggest rival. Perhaps this could prove to be somewhat of a high-water mark for Montreal based on its roster composition, but while this may be the team’s absolute peak in terms of form, it’s still hard to be interested in fading it as an underdog right now.

The Leafs have been fighting through some lesser play of late, but enter off of one of their best performances of the season versus the Devils. Maybe a level of complacency had snuck into their game in a number of recent matchups, and the team’s ceiling is certainly higher than we have seen throughout the last month of play.

At +125, the Canadiens would be my lean in terms of a side, as they have displayed strong form in all facets of the game of late and will likely make this matchup close. This is by a wide margin the closest these teams have been priced over the last two years, though, so oddsmakers are certainly respecting the Canadiens’ recent resurgence.

It seems quite likely that both teams will bring highly-spirited, well-structured performances into this matchup and I don’t imagine either team finding much separation on the scoreboard. At a long price of +333, I believe there is value backing this matchup to require overtime.