The Philadelphia Flyers will look to take advantage of a Toronto Maple Leafs team which played a spirited contest versus the rival Boston Bruins yesterday evening.
Head coach John Tortorella&#8217;s Flyers have played a competitive brand of hockey this season, but suffer from a league worst .869 save percentage from a trio of unproven goaltenders. They are 4-6-0 over the last ten games, and hold a record of 9-9-3 on the road this season.
The Leafs will not enjoy as significant of a goaltending edge as they normally would versus the Flyers in this matchup, as Dennis Hildeby has been confirmed as their starting goaltender in this matchup. Hildeby owns an .875 save percentage and 3.68 GAA in three appearances this season.
I&#8217;ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.
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<h2 class="mb-5 text-2xl font-bold">Flyers vs. Leafs Odds</h2>
<ul>
<li> Flyers Moneyline Odds: +133</li>
<li>Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds: -147</li>
<li>Puck Line Odds: Flyers +1.5 (-203), Maple Leafs -1.5 (+176)</li>
<li>Game Total: 6 goals (over +100, under -113)</li>
</ul>
Philadelphia Flyers:
Head coach John Tortorella&#8217;s Flyers side surprised in posting a record of 38-33-11 last season, and even hung around in the wildcard race until the final week of the season. It seemed quite possible that if the team received most respectable goaltending this season Philadelphia could build on last year&#8217;s total of 87 points, but that was certainly a big &#8216;if&#8217; entering the year.
The Flyers were widely projected to receive some of the NHL&#8217;s worst goaltending once again, and unfortunately those projections have come to fruition. Ivan Fedotov, Aleksei Kolosov and Samuel Ersson have combined for a -18.5 GSAx rating and .869 save percentage, which are all the worst marks in the league.
Fedotov has arguably been the best of the three with a -3.5 GSAx and .877 save percentage in ten appearances, and has been confirmed as the Flyers starter in this matchup.
Since December 1st the Flyers are just 5-8-1 and have allowed 4.14 goals against per game, which is the highest mark in the NHL in that span. In those matchups the Flyers own a 53.98% expected goal share, and have allowed just 24.76 shots-against-per-60, which is the third-best mark in the league.
While it seems like a cop-out to entirely blame suspect results on goaltending, in the Flyers&#8217; case it seems quite fair. On low and medium danger shots their goalies all hold well below expected-save percentages, which has killed an otherwise sound process.
Since the start of December the Flyers have scored 3.43 goals per game, which is the third best mark in the NHL. Their offensive core is probably a fair bit deeper than is credited, both in terms of production and ability to carry play at even strength.
After a slow start to the season Owen Tippett has been in better form of late with eight points in the last eight games. Travis Konecny has been excellent with 43 points in 39 games, and has rightfully earned a highly coveted spot on Canada&#8217;s 4 Nations Face-off roster. Matvei Michkov has struggled to find consistency at times, but has more or less been advertised in displaying excellent offensive upside.
The Flyers&#8217; second line compiled of defensively responsible youngsters Tyson Foerster, Noah Cates and Bobby Brink has been excellent. In 172.7 minutes together the trio holds a 68.8% expected-goal share, and an actual goal share of 60%.
Toronto Maple Leafs:
There are a ton of positives to point towards surrounding the Leafs quality 6-4 win over the Bruins Saturday evening. Auston Matthews made an excellent return to the lineup after a six-game absence, recording three points and a +5 rating while showing some excellent jump all over the ice. Matthew Knies put up five points playing alongside Mitch Marner and Matthews, after going pointless throughout all six-games of Matthews absence.
In 205.2 minutes together at even-strength Knies, Matthews and Marner have generated 3.86 xGF/60, which ranks second in the NHL among units to play over 150 minutes together this season. They hold an actual goal differential of 14-10, which is quite strong given the difficulty of matchups the unit typically faces.
Pontus Holmberg is will remain out of the lineup in this matchup due to illness, and is expected to be the only Leaf that has played games this season that is unavailable for this game, aside from Anthony Stolarz, who&#8217;s absence is obviously significant in this back-to-back spot.
Since Joseph Woll started last night, Dennis Hildeby will make his fourth start of the season in this matchup. Hildeby has been excellent in the AHL with a .916 save percentage and 2.42 GAA, but has struggled in a small sample at the NHL level with an .875 save percentage.
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Best Bets for Flyers vs Leafs:
The Flyers opened at a consensus price of +165 yesterday, but have moved all the way down to their current price of +130. A huge part of that movement comes down to the fact that Hildeby has been confirmed as the Leafs&#8217; starter, and is also likely due to the fact that sharper bettors believe that Philadelphia has been in better form than its recent record suggests.
It was highly unlikely that the Leafs would ever have opted to play Woll back-to-back in this spot, so it was safe to assume once Woll played yesterday&#8217;s game that Hildeby would be the starter. Which makes this game another illustration of a tip that I like to point out often regarding betting the NHL, which is that if you can assume the backup will play the second leg of a back-to-back, it&#8217;s best to bet early if possible in order to get better numbers, though betting limits will be lower.
The flip-side of that thought is that if you were interested in betting Toronto in this matchup, waiting until Hildeby was confirmed to get the best number is the smartest approach.
This looks like a good spot to back Knies to remain productive after yesterday&#8217;s incredible performance with a point in this matchup, which is available at +100 at the time of writing. Knies play had tailed off considerably of late, but that was partially due to playing on less effective units at even strength, and he surely gained plenty of confidence back yesterday evening.
Knies has been highly productive when playing alongside Matthews and Marner, and that unit should be able to generate some offence in this matchup versus a Flyers&#8217; team suffering from league worst goaltending.
Best Bet: Matthew Knies Over 0.5 Points +100 (Sports Interaction, Play to -110)

The Philadelphia Flyers will look to take advantage of a Toronto Maple Leafs team which played a spirited contest versus the rival Boston Bruins yesterday evening.

Head coach John Tortorella's Flyers have played a competitive brand of hockey this season, but suffer from a league worst .869 save percentage from a trio of unproven goaltenders. They are 4-6-0 over the last ten games, and hold a record of 9-9-3 on the road this season.

The Leafs will not enjoy as significant of a goaltending edge as they normally would versus the Flyers in this matchup, as Dennis Hildeby has been confirmed as their starting goaltender in this matchup. Hildeby owns an .875 save percentage and 3.68 GAA in three appearances this season.

I'll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.<div class="bam-inline-promotion-block" data-max-length="2" data-placement-id="2110" data-context="web-content-promocard" data-property-id="330"></div>
<h2 class="mb-5 text-2xl font-bold">Flyers vs. Leafs Odds</h2>
<ul>
 	<li> Flyers Moneyline Odds: +133</li>
 	<li>Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds: -147</li>
 	<li>Puck Line Odds: Flyers +1.5 (-203), Maple Leafs -1.5 (+176)</li>
 	<li>Game Total: 6 goals (over +100, under -113)</li>
</ul>
Philadelphia Flyers:

Head coach John Tortorella's Flyers side surprised in posting a record of 38-33-11 last season, and even hung around in the wildcard race until the final week of the season. It seemed quite possible that if the team received most respectable goaltending this season Philadelphia could build on last year's total of 87 points, but that was certainly a big 'if' entering the year.

The Flyers were widely projected to receive some of the NHL's worst goaltending once again, and unfortunately those projections have come to fruition. Ivan Fedotov, Aleksei Kolosov and Samuel Ersson have combined for a -18.5 GSAx rating and .869 save percentage, which are all the worst marks in the league.

Fedotov has arguably been the best of the three with a -3.5 GSAx and .877 save percentage in ten appearances, and has been confirmed as the Flyers starter in this matchup.

Since December 1st the Flyers are just 5-8-1 and have allowed 4.14 goals against per game, which is the highest mark in the NHL in that span. In those matchups the Flyers own a 53.98% expected goal share, and have allowed just 24.76 shots-against-per-60, which is the third-best mark in the league.

While it seems like a cop-out to entirely blame suspect results on goaltending, in the Flyers' case it seems quite fair. On low and medium danger shots their goalies all hold well below expected-save percentages, which has killed an otherwise sound process.

Since the start of December the Flyers have scored 3.43 goals per game, which is the third best mark in the NHL. Their offensive core is probably a fair bit deeper than is credited, both in terms of production and ability to carry play at even strength.

After a slow start to the season Owen Tippett has been in better form of late with eight points in the last eight games. Travis Konecny has been excellent with 43 points in 39 games, and has rightfully earned a highly coveted spot on Canada's 4 Nations Face-off roster. Matvei Michkov has struggled to find consistency at times, but has more or less been advertised in displaying excellent offensive upside.

The Flyers' second line compiled of defensively responsible youngsters Tyson Foerster, Noah Cates and Bobby Brink has been excellent. In 172.7 minutes together the trio holds a 68.8% expected-goal share, and an actual goal share of 60%.

Toronto Maple Leafs:

There are a ton of positives to point towards surrounding the Leafs quality 6-4 win over the Bruins Saturday evening. Auston Matthews made an excellent return to the lineup after a six-game absence, recording three points and a +5 rating while showing some excellent jump all over the ice. Matthew Knies put up five points playing alongside Mitch Marner and Matthews, after going pointless throughout all six-games of Matthews absence.

In 205.2 minutes together at even-strength Knies, Matthews and Marner have generated 3.86 xGF/60, which ranks second in the NHL among units to play over 150 minutes together this season. They hold an actual goal differential of 14-10, which is quite strong given the difficulty of matchups the unit typically faces.

Pontus Holmberg is will remain out of the lineup in this matchup due to illness, and is expected to be the only Leaf that has played games this season that is unavailable for this game, aside from Anthony Stolarz, who's absence is obviously significant in this back-to-back spot.

Since Joseph Woll started last night, Dennis Hildeby will make his fourth start of the season in this matchup. Hildeby has been excellent in the AHL with a .916 save percentage and 2.42 GAA, but has struggled in a small sample at the NHL level with an .875 save percentage.<div class="bam-inline-promotion-block" data-max-length="2" data-placement-id="2110" data-context="web-content-promocard" data-property-id="330"></div>

Best Bets for Flyers vs Leafs:

The Flyers opened at a consensus price of +165 yesterday, but have moved all the way down to their current price of +130. A huge part of that movement comes down to the fact that Hildeby has been confirmed as the Leafs' starter, and is also likely due to the fact that sharper bettors believe that Philadelphia has been in better form than its recent record suggests.

It was highly unlikely that the Leafs would ever have opted to play Woll back-to-back in this spot, so it was safe to assume once Woll played yesterday's game that Hildeby would be the starter. Which makes this game another illustration of a tip that I like to point out often regarding betting the NHL, which is that if you can assume the backup will play the second leg of a back-to-back, it's best to bet early if possible in order to get better numbers, though betting limits will be lower.

The flip-side of that thought is that if you were interested in betting Toronto in this matchup, waiting until Hildeby was confirmed to get the best number is the smartest approach.

This looks like a good spot to back Knies to remain productive after yesterday's incredible performance with a point in this matchup, which is available at +100 at the time of writing. Knies play had tailed off considerably of late, but that was partially due to playing on less effective units at even strength, and he surely gained plenty of confidence back yesterday evening.

Knies has been highly productive when playing alongside Matthews and Marner, and that unit should be able to generate some offence in this matchup versus a Flyers' team suffering from league worst goaltending.

Best Bet: Matthew Knies Over 0.5 Points +100 (Sports Interaction, Play to -110)

NHL Betting Preview (Jan. 5): Flyers vs. Maple Leafs Odds

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