The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to snap their two-game losing skid when they visit Ball Arena to take on the Colorado Avalanche Saturday evening. Both sides will have several skaters debuting with their new team in this matchup, which adds a level of excitement to a high-quality matchup between two contenders.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

Whether you loved the Leafs trade deadline moves or not, there isn’t much debating that the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning both got significantly better. Winning the Atlantic Division will provide a notable boost as a result, as the winner will avoid playing a legitimate Stanley Cup contender in round one.

While if the Leafs are to pull off winning the division they will still have to best one of those teams in the next round, it would spare being in an opening round series which will likely be a six-or-seven game bloodbath, and force them to have to knock off only one true Cup contender in the first rounds.

Many observers believe the Leafs postseason success will be most greatly determined by whether or not their top stars finally produce at an elite rate in the playoffs, and that is a reasonable way of looking at it. From that perspective, the Leafs had a perfectly reasonable trade deadline, acquiring a responsible third-line centre in Scott Laughton, and a physical defender in Brandon Carlo.

It was a comparable deadline to what we saw from Toronto in 2023 during former GM Kyle Dubas tenure, when the team brought in Ryan O’Reilly and Luke Schenn.

The Leafs paid a relatively fair price to add Laughton, at least by deadline day standards, who will provide a high level of energy and defensive accountability. With 27 points in 60 games this season and 39 points in 82 games last season, he is not an impact player from an offensive perspective, but will bring a stabilizing presence to a third line which has been a concern this season.

Carlo is an interesting pickup, as the Leafs know full-well that the 28 year-old is capable of being a highly effective player in the postseason. There is no denying that his play has fallen off significantly this season though, and his disappointing play has been one reason the Boston Bruins have been so much worse than expected. He holds a -2.2 expected goals above replacement rating this season.

Part of the Leafs recent playoff disappointments has been a lack of quality puck movement from their defensive core, which has hampered their top forwards ability to create offence. They have generally played a highly conservative style in recent postseasons, revolving around trying to “punt” pucks out, and avoid critical errors in the process.

Carlo’s addition does not alleviate that concern, as he is weak at moving the puck but Chris Tanev’s addition this summer certainly did. Carlo does help Toronto’s defensive depth, and he could be well suited to play alongside Morgan Rielly.

The Leafs came out with a respectable effort in the first period on Wednesday versus the Vegas Golden Knights, but after falling into an early 3-0 hole thanks to some sub-par goaltending from Joseph Woll, seemed to mail it in. The Leafs outshot the Knights 31-to-25, but generated only nine high danger scoring chances compared to the Knights total of 15.

As Woll has offered two poor outings in a row, Anthony Stolarz seems even more likely to be the starter in game one of the postseason right now. Stolarz holds a +17.6 GSAx rating and .925 save percentage in 23 appearances this season, and is expected to get the start in this matchup.

A lack of depth was a clearcut issue during the Avalanche’s last two playoff eliminations, which have come at the hands of the Seattle Kraken and Dallas Stars. GM Joe Sakic was hellbent on alleviating that concern ahead of this season’s deadline, as he made several aggressive moves to revamp his roster.

The Avalanche’s offensive lineup currently looks entirely different than it did earlier in the year, featuring five newcomers in Martin Necas, Jack Drury, Brock Nelson, Charlie Coyle and Jimmy Vesey, as well as a healthy Valeri Nichushkin. They now feature one of the league’s deepest offensive lineups on paper, though it still may not be entirely on par with what the division rival Dallas Stars are offering.

The Avalanche’s blue-line looks like much more of a question mark. They hold arguably the best unit in the league in Cale Makar and Devon Toews, but the other two pairings still look concerning relative to other Stanley Cup favourites. The team made a big gamble in acquiring Ryan Lindgren from the New York Rangers, who has had a train-wreck of a season, hoping his game can stabilize in softer usage.

Since January 1st, the Avs’ are 14-9-2, and have scored 3.16 goals per game while allowing 2.49 goals against per game. They hold an expected goal share of 52.0% in that span, generating 3.14 xGF/60.

Mackenzie Blackwood is expected to get the start in goal. He holds a .916 save percentage and +13.8 GSAx rating in 45 appearances this season.

The Leafs should be desperate to bounce-back in this matchup as they look to get right after a game which ultimately was not very competitive in Vegas. Part of Toronto’s problem in that game was another shaky start from Woll, but goaltending should not be a concern as Stolarz is set to start in this matchup.

While the Avs are now a powerhouse, it still seems reasonable to think that the Leafs can hang around and make this a game with Stolarz in net. While it seems highly unlikely that the Leafs will win this game by a comfortable margin, I do think they will bounce-back with a sharper performance overall.

Three of Toronto’s last five matchups have gone past regulation, and at +333 we are getting a good number to back that trend in what should be a well contested matchup.