It is perhaps worth starting this blog with a few circumstantial caveats in revisiting the Auston Matthews-Patrik Laine debate: Matthews has clearly emerged as the far superior player and the following blog isn’t meant to agitate scouts, prognosticators or fans from various fan bases — it’s August, I’m a professional hockey writer and with some Toronto-based arrogance, we’re rarely thinking about what happens outside of the Hockey Capital of the World. There’s a natural invitation to revisit the 2016 NHL Draft discourse, after Laine and a 2026 second-round selection were traded to the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for Jordan Harris selection on Monday, affording the sneaky sniper several chances to face off against his draft contemporary.

Matthews and Laine were viewed as 1A/1B entering the 2016 NHL Draft, a distinction that hasn’t aged well as Laine’s offensive production has tailed off, with spats and conflicts at nearly every stop of his career. After scoring 69 goals during the 2023-24 campaign where he also earned a Selke finalist designation, Matthews was named the Maple Leafs’ captain on August 14 and will author the next chapter of the franchise’s perpetual pursuit of the Stanley Cup. Laine is now joining his third club and is looking to shed his reputation as a gifted offensive player allergic to playing defense and he provides an additional layer of intrigue to the Maple Leafs-Canadiens historical rivalry.

So why was Laine so highly regarded? Laine dominated the 2016 World Juniors, leading Finland to the gold medal, posting seven goals and 13 points in seven games, with his release and shooting accuracy causing scouts to drool over his potential. And by February, Laine had cast Matthews’ consensus status into doubt — ten scouts told TSN’s Bob McKenzie that they’d take Matthews over Laine, but they had to thoroughly examine their decision.

“Had to think long and hard about it,” an unnamed scout told McKenzie. “Laine is right there. In the end, we favoured the centre over the winger but I don’t think it’s a reach at all to see Laine going first overall. A lot of our European scouts who see these guys think Laine is better.”

Laine continued his international success, this time against grown men, where he led the 2016 IIHF Worlds with seven goals, while finishing fourth in overall scoring with 12 points as Finland captured the silver medal. Laine was named MVP of the tournament and the line between borderline first-overall pick and presumptive favourite started to blur. Analysts started to speculate whether Laine’s gamebreaking offensive talent outweighed Matthews’ steady offensive production with ZSC Lions of Switzerland’s National League.

Corey Pronman made the case for Laine over Matthews definitely in his 2016 NHL Draft rankings for ESPN, with a particular emphasis on Laine boasting a far superior shot. Laine may have had a deadly release in 2016 but with Matthews firmly entrenched as the best goal-scorer in the world, this distinction hasn’t aged well. This isn’t a knock on Pronman, who is widely considered among the best prospects analysts in the world, but a function of takes and scouting profiles designed to age poorly.

Pronman wrote in detail why he preferred Laine, believing that his superior shot-creation ability .

Laine certainly closed the gap and the idea that he was a special offensive talent who had an extra level to tap into turned the consensus opinion into a legitimate debate. Ultimately, the Maple Leafs selected Matthews first overall and the Winnipeg Jets rushed to the podium to select Laine. For the first two years of their career, Matthews-Laine approximated something to the effect of Crosby-Ovechkin Lite.

“There might be (a rivalry), I don’t really know,” Laine told visiting reporters, as relayed by Lance Hornby of the Toronto Sun in October 2017. “I’ve only played two games against Toronto. Yeah, they were exciting games and they were tight games. Who knows? It’s two good teams, two young groups.

“I’m just thinking about who we are playing against as a team. The media and all the people around hockey has made a bigger deal out of it than it really is. I just want to focus on playing against Toronto and focus on this team. It’s going to be a lot of attention between the two of us and between our teams. It’s going to be a fun night, for sure.”

Matthews started his rookie season with a tour-de-force four-goal output against the Ottawa Senators but Laine also exploded out of the gate with a goal and an assist in his NHL debut versus the Carolina Hurricanes. And in their first head-to-head matchup, Laine stole the show, recording a hat-trick, including the OT winner in a 5-4 triumph over the Maple Leafs.

It was as good as the individual rivalry would get for Laine. He lived up to his draft billing immediately, recording 36 goals and 65 points in 73 games, while Matthews notched 40 goals and 69 points while suiting up for all 82 contests, winning the Calder Trophy in the process.

Laine wasn’t thrilled about the award decision, and responded with the best season of his career, authoring a 44-goal performance, with 20 goals coming off the man advantage. At 19 years old, Laine looked poised to become one of the NHL’s marquee goal-scorers and even the biggest pessimist wouldn’t have anticipated his steady decline. Matthews, on the other hand, worked tirelessly on his game and posted 34 goals and 63 points in 62 games. Matthews’ defensive superiority was evident and no greater an authority than Mats Sundin declared him as the superior player entering their third NHL campaigns.

“I think Matthews [is better], but let me make this clear: I think both are fantastic players,” Sundin told NHL.com’s Mike Zeisberger in October 2018. “It’s tough to compare. But I think if you look at it this early in their careers, I think Matthews is ahead in terms of the physical aspect of his game and his control of everything he does.”

From here onwards, it’s not even a debate. Matthews morphed into one of the best players in the NHL and ahead of the 2024-25 season, he is a perpetual Hart Trophy candidate, winning MVP honours in 2022, with two 60-goal seasons under his belt. Laine’s defensive shortcomings have stopped him from turning into the perennial All-Star he appeared to be as a teenager, and he’s been disgruntled at every stop of his NHL career to date, where the Canadiens represent a new beginning of sorts.

Matthews is far and away the most productive player from the 2016 class, with Matthew Tkachuk trailing behind in second — and perhaps you could make the argument that Matthews would trade places with Tkachuk, coming off a Stanley Cup. Laine’s 388 points place him in a respectable fifth-place showing — he’s a productive NHL scorer, but given the flashes of superstardom he showed, while staking a real claim to push Matthews for the No. 1 spot, it’s hard not to wonder what could have been.