The original premise of this piece was to suggest that John Tavares was snubbed from Canada’s 4 Nations Face-Off roster. After all, Tavares is in the middle of a resurgent campaign where he’s using his power game and hockey intelligence to near-elite effect while recording 11 goals and 22 points in 23 games for a Toronto Maple Leafs team that leads the Atlantic Division despite missing Auston Matthews virtually for the entire month of November. Prior to Wednesday’s games, Tavares ranks ninth in points and tied for 20th in goals among all Canadian skaters, while winning 59.4 percent of his faceoffs — the best mark among any candidate within reasonable consideration, save for Jamie Benn.

And yet, Seth Jarvis’ inclusion on Team Canada makes a ton of sense, as the Carolina Hurricanes’ emerging star ought to be the Selke favourite at this juncture of the season. Carolina controls 66.8 percent of the expected goals when Jarvis is on the ice at 5-on-5 this season, the best individual share in the NHL, with a plus-28 shot differential via Natural Stat Trick. This is consistently in line with his player profile through four seasons, and Carolina is constantly among the NHL’s best shot-creation, suppression and possession clubs in the league. He ranks 9th in expected goals against/60 among all 536 qualified players — for our purposes, 200 minutes or greater at 5-on-5 — and it’s not just his elite defensive impact that stands out. Jarvis ranks 11th in expected goals per 60 at 5-on-5, one spot behind Auston Matthews, one spot ahead of Nathan MacKinnon, while being deployed through all three zones.

Jarvis shouldn’t be anonymous to the average hockey fan but he doesn’t have the same name recognition as Tavares, Mark Scheifele, or even a phenom like Connor Bedard, who may have been the toughest omission overall. He’s just 22 years old but he’s quickly morphing into one of the NHL’s premier two-way players, coming off a 33-goal, 67-point campaign for the Hurricanes in 2023-24. Jarvis is adept at turning defence into instant offence, can be deployed against top competition, and could provide some real balance for Canada as the 13th forward. Here’s one example of Jarvis’ work in tandem with Sebastian Aho, against the Dallas Stars on November 25.

Jarvis is a plus skater, and his age certainly matters here too: if Canada is looking towards the future, he’s clearly someone that Jon Cooper and the management team identified as a core pillar of the next generation. Bedard and Macklin Celebrini are certainly more exciting under-23 players and when the next best-on-best tournament comes around, they may be among the very best players in the NHL, but Jarvis is a complete player at this junction of his career and is a building block for the next Canadian clubs.

This could be viewed as an unconventional pick, but this is the 13th spot on a loaded Canadian forward group that could’ve sent two teams to the tournament — a common refrain to be sure, but a hypothetical scrimmage between the omissions and the actual team would be a pay-per-view event. Tavares is having a phenomenal year, one of several Canadian players who were more than deserving of consideration. It’s an eye-raising pick to be sure, but Jarvis can provide secondary offence, he’s been the NHL’s premier defensive forward this season with Aleksander Barkov on his heels, he’s a core part of the next generation and these are all qualities you want from the 13th spot. It may end up paying dividends come February.