The Toronto Maple Leafs’ slow start to the season has sent their fanbase into a frenzy. This is an annual occurrence, but with the team’s struggles stretching further into the season than most fans are comfortable with, the temperature has been cranked. If you scan social media, you might see anything from people suggesting a tear-down and tank season for Gavin McKenna or Keaton Verhoeff or a mid-season trade of one of the team’s stars. Neither of these will happen, but the fact that fans are talking about it should shine some light on how rough things have been.

While talks of a full-blown tank year or a seismic locker room shift are obviously emotionally-driven and not realistic, the conversation about whether or not the Leafs should be buyers at the deadline and perhaps even consider selling off some pieces is a fair one to have. Especially considering the parity of the league, and more specifically, the Eastern Conference at this point, it’s looking less and less like the Leafs are going to finish first in the division with a notable gap behind them. So, it shouldn’t have surprised anybody when The Athletic published their trade bait board and two Maple Leafs, Morgan Rielly and Brandon Carlo, cracked it.

The Rielly conversation is a difficult one to have between how long his tenure has been with the Leafs and what his locker room presence brings to the team. The thought of trading Carlo, however, has been popping up more often than not, and I can see why. A big, defensively sturdy, right-handed defenceman with two more years at a reasonable contract is something that will have more teams interested than not, and considering the haul the Leafs had to pay to get him last season, it’s hard not to daydream about the potential return the Leafs could get for him. That said, the Leafs shouldn’t try and trade him unless they get a similar offer to what they paid.

Carlo finished the year strong with the Maple Leafs and didn’t look out of place in the playoffs, but the 2025-26 season has been a different story so far. The blueliner’s physicality has taken a big hit, he’s made some questionable decisions with the puck, and he’s been on the shelf with a lower-body injury since November 13. His value to the team has taken a massive hit in the eyes of public perception due to the team’s horrendous defensive play as a whole, so the idea that a team would be willing to pay up a first-round pick and a prospect to get him and bail the Leafs out of what’s being looked at as a bad trade for them is unrealistic.

Maybe this Leafs team doesn’t deserve the benefit of the doubt, but considering the way they’ve looked in their past couple of games compared to the entire month of October, it’s fair to suggest that the pendulum of Carlo’s value will swing the other way once the team is fully healthy. Especially now that they’ve got Troy Stecher, who has given the team some immediate relief on the back end in a time of dire straits, the Leafs defensive corps could look much better when Chris Tanev is healthy again and they’ve got their full six-man unit back in place.

It might sound like a bit of an exaggeration, but the question of whether or not the Leafs should trade Carlo opens up a deeper question of whether you believe the Leafs’ window is still open or not. If you’re one of the people that thinks the 2024-25 Leafs were a figment of our imagination backed up by strong goaltending, and that things are only going to continue to trend downward over the next few years before Auston Matthews is due for a new contract, it makes sense that you would want to trade Carlo and try to get some value back for the prospect pool.

Personally, I think it’s far too early to make such claims, as horrible as the team has looked at times. I think their early struggles were par for the course considering how things have gone in each of the last few seasons, and the injury bug hit them at the worst possible time which prolonged the slump. I would err on the side of believing that once the team is at full health, they’ll hit their stride again and they’ll be back in the playoff conversation by the time the calendar year flips.

If I’m correct in this prediction, I don’t see a desperate need to try and recoup value for Carlo. When the Leafs traded for him last season, they had been without a right-handed, defensively sturdy option on the back end until the acquisition of Tanev. If you jump the gun on trading Carlo too soon and the team proves they still have the desire to make a deep playoff run, you’re left trying to fill that same need again all because you decided that 20 games was enough of a sample size to determine that this team won’t be in a playoff spot by the end of the season.

Now, having said this, my point remains that if a team comes knocking on the door and offering a first-round pick, a prospect, and another piece for Carlo’s services, they would be foolish to reject it. But Maple Leafs general manager Brad Treliving spoke recently about wanting to pursue a ‘hockey trade’, in other words, a player for a player. So, I wouldn’t expect the Leafs to seriously dangle Carlo unless they’re getting a similar player back (which, in that case, why even make the trade to begin with?), or they get the doors blown off of them with a different offer.

The Leafs have not had an inspiring start to the season, and if January comes around and this team is still hanging around four or six points out of a playoff spot, the time will come to start having tough conversations about selling off pieces, in which case, they should absolutely revisit the Carlo talks. But, until then, they’ve got a 29-year-old right-handed defenceman making $3.5 million who could be a legitimate asset to them and their playoff aspirations, and they shouldn’t be in any rush to trade him just for the sake of making a trade.