For the better part of a decade, the Toronto Maple Leafs blueline has largely been built around what works best for Morgan Rielly. With the success of Jake McCabe in the latter half of 2023-24, and with the arrival of Chris Tanev in the summer of 2024, along with new coach Craig Berube, things changed significantly for how the Leafs approached defence. And while the Leafs saw overall improvements in their defensive game, Rielly struggled for much of the season and now that Brendan Shanahan’s plans are being scrapped, it raises the question of whether or not Game Seven against Florida was Rielly’s last game in a Maple Leafs uniform.

Before heading too far down the path of speculation, it’s important to remember that Morgan Rielly has a full no movement clause, is a career Leaf, and Toronto is still very much going to be one of the most competitive teams next season, regardless of what overhaul takes place. There is greater value in looking back at the past season and correcting it than coming up with potential situations where Rielly would waive his no movement clause.

With the high probability of Rielly’s return, it’s important to look at the biggest barriers to his success, but also what he has to offer the Leafs that no one else on the blueline does, and that is his 5v5 puck moving ability.

Puck moving, arguably Rielly’s most important skill was downplayed for much of the 2024-25 season. Craig Berube doesn’t share Sheldon Keefe’s appreciation of the stretch pass, nor was he excited to see his defencemen pinching with great frequency. When Rielly is essentially a fourth forward when he’s on the ice, the best of Rielly was off limits. High event hockey was no longer the expectation of the top line, especially with Auston Matthews not finishing at previous levels.

Again, with offence being the name of Rielly’s game, it was a bold decision by Craig Berube to take Rielly off the top powerplay unit. Bold, but not unwarranted as Rielly’s success a puck mover and offensive defenceman has always come more from the 5v5 transition game than the powerplay. With capable puckmovers like William Nylander and Mitch Marner already on the top unit and the Leafs facing a low requirement for defensive needs that Rielly would only meet slightly better than Marner, the move made sense, as Rielly has and never will possess a high velocity point shot, and his value comes more from cycling and pinching, again traits that better serve the Leafs offensively at 5v5. As a result, Rielly’s powerplay numbers were the lowest since the COVID shortened seasons.

Rielly still added value to the second powerplay unit, which could benefit from his skillset and with the potential departure of Mitch Marner coming, there might be a greater role for Rielly on the powerplay in 2025-26.

In addition to Rielly’s offence being stunted, the Leafs full-heartedly embraced the Mike Van Ryn and Craig Berube affinity for man-to-man defensive coverage instead of the zone style played under Sheldon Keefe, and while Rielly was never a defensive zone asset with the zone approach, man-to-man suits him even less.

While the zone coverage had the potential for Rielly to be caught in making some poor positional changes, it generally meant that his partner was responsible for the high danger areas of the ice while Rielly would focus on puck pursuit. The man-to-man approach often left Morgan Rielly being outmatched by better offensive opponents, and while his partner would generally be taking on the tougher assignments and the net presence, Rielly was still frequently overwhelmed. At this point expecting much defensively from Rielly is futile and sheltering Morgan away from top offensive units had an advantage, but with years left on Rielly’s contract, more aggressive sheltering might be the priority rather than believing that there is the perfect partner out there that will allow Rielly to play his game his way. Maybe a full training camp and lengthier run with Brandon Carlo will prove that opinion wrong, but with Rielly the focus should always be on how to get the most out of him a puck carrier/mover and offensive defencemen than thinking reasonable on ice defensive numbers will ever be achieved.

Rielly’s numbers took a step back, especially in the playoffs. While Rielly’s offence returned in the post season, he also became a bigger liability on the defensive side of the puck. And while the offence returned, it was the there for the last five games against the Panthers, and Rielly’s defensive issues were on full display at that time.

Rielly’s partnerships factored a lot into his outcomes as well. Far and away, Rielly spent more time with Oliver Ekman-Larsson than anyone else this season. That situation had two puck movers together in a second pairing utilization and frequently had Ekman-Larsson playing on his weaker side (the right side.)

Rielly’s next most frequent partner was Philippe Myers, who wasn’t a bad fit for Rielly as he fits the big, stay-at-home archetype that works best with Rielly, but resulted in Myers playing in situations above his ability or putting Rielly down the lineup where he didn’t have the Leafs’ better offensive players on the ice with him and capitalizing on his abilities was limited.

Brandon Carlo was the next most frequent partner and while the goals for numbers together are encouraging, the Corsi For numbers, especially in the playoffs, show that if this pairing is truly the long term plan for the Leafs, there will be a lot of bugs that need to be worked out in training camp.

Both McCabe and Tanev had more shot suppressing success with Rielly and perhaps the Leafs will want to revisit Rielly with Tanev in the future and rely on McCabe and Carlo a strong shutdown pairing option.

By the numbers (as well as the eyes), Rielly’s season wasn’t great and as the team looks like set a new direction, it is probably reasonable that Rielly’s name will come up as one of the players who could be a part of that change. Rielly’s no movement clause will ultimately make it his decision, but if Morgan doesn’t see himself as a fit with the defensive system, the longest tenured Leaf could be open to moving on in 2025-26.