Maple Leafs vs Oilers 03/01/21 – Odds and NHL Betting Trends

Photo credit:Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
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1 year ago
by OddsShark (@OddsShark) – Sponsored Post
The Toronto Maple Leafs’ habit of being able to refocus on the road predates the away-team advantage that has arisen in the North Division. The Maple Leafs are a -115 away favourite with the host Edmonton Oilers coming back at -105 in a game that has a 6.5-goal total on the NHL odds for Monday night at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
Toronto is 11-9 in its last 20 away games with the total going OVER 12 times at betting sites. That includes a 5-1 record over their last six away games with the OVER hitting four times. Edmonton is 10-10 in its last 20 home games, with the total going OVER in seven of its most recent 12. Toronto is 6-2 in its last eight away games against Edmonton, with the OVER hitting five times.
The away teams in the North Division are 38-31-8 (.558 points percentage. Home teams are 39-33-5 (.539).
Maple Leafs vs Oilers | OddsShark Matchup Report
Toronto won 4-0 last Saturday in the opener of the teams’ three-game series. The Maple Leafs are 4-2-1 in their last seven matchups with the Oilers and hold a 15-9 edge in five-on-five goals in spite of being on the short end of expected goals-for percentage (44. xGF%7) and high-danger chances share (41.4), per Natural Stat Trick. Head-to-head, Toronto’s power play is eight-for-16 and Edmonton’s is six-for-21. (All advanced stats include only score- and venue-adjusted five-on-five play.)
The Maple Leafs are 16-4-2, and own a 14-5-2 record in their last 21 away games with one day of rest since the start of 2019-20. That trend might allay concerns about the possible absence of No. 1 center Auston Matthews (hand, day-to-day). On Saturday, the John Tavares-Joe Thornton-Mitch Marner and Alex Kerfoot-Alexander Barabanov-William Nylander lines were both efficient. Tavares could be due to score after a game where he had a team-high five shots and earned two assists.
Toronto is 11th in the 31-team NHL in shots-for percentage (50.8), as well as ninth in xGF% (52.4) and ninth in high-danger chances share (52.1). The Maple Leafs are second in goal scoring (3.55 per game) and sixth in goals against (2.50). Their power play is ranked second (32.4 percent) and their penalty killing ranks 16th (79.4).
Jack Campbell is 3-0-0 with a 1.33 goals-against average and .951 save percentage after his 30-save shutout last Saturday in his return from a five-week injury absence. Campbell, whom MoneyPuck credited with saving 2.70 goals above average on Saturday, might start again, but No. 1 goalie Frederik Andersen (lower body, day to day) was able to practice on Sunday. Anderson, who has missed three games so far, is 11-3-2 with a 2.69 GAA and .905 save percentage.
The Oilers are 14-9-0, good for a .609 points percentage, which is third in the North Division. Edmonton is 12-11-4 since the start of 2019-20 when playing at home with one day of rest, but should have motivation to come out strongly. Star center Connor McDavid and his wings Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jesse Puljujarvi were the team’s least effective line on Saturday with McDavid mustering only one shot on goal while being stymied by T.J. Brodie and Morgan Rielly, Toronto’s top defense pair. The Oilers lines helmed by Leon Draisaitl and Gaëtan Haas had much stronger nights Saturday and seem due for some puck luck.
Edmonton is 22nd in shots-for percentage (48.4), as well as 13th in xGF% (50.6) and 11th in high-danger chances share (51.8). The Oilers are fourth in goal scoring (3.43 per game) and 22nd in goals against (3.00). Their power play is ranked seventh (27.2) and their penalty killing ranks 20th (77.5).
Mike Smith is 6-1-0 with a 2.04 GAA and .934 save percentage after Saturday’s defeat, which came in his third consecutive start. Backup Mikko Koskinen is 7-8-0 with a 3.26 GAA and .901 save percentage. Smith has the better career stats against Toronto –  9-4-3, 2.45 and .920 in 16 career games, compared to Koskinen’s 2-5-0 record, 3.64 GAA and .874 save percentage in seven games.
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