Scoring Chances at Even Strength, 2010-11 Final

How many scoring chances did the Leafs produce per 60 minutes of Even Strength icetime while Mikhail Grabovski was on the ice?  How many did the whole team produce/give up on average?  Which players had the highest rate of Chances Against per 60 minutes?  How did Keith Aulie progress throughout the season (you can find that out right at the very end of this post)?  Which goalie was provided with the best support?  How awesome is Matt Frattin? 😀

Those questions will be answered within this post, as I finally present the scoring chances data for individual Toronto Maple Leafs’ players during the game’s most frequent state: Even Strength.

There will be more posts to come eventually, including stats for special teams and types of scoring chances, but the EV (or ES, whichever abbreviation you prefer) breakdown is the main thing I’ve been looking forward to since I started my 2nd year of tracking scoring chances in each Leafs game back in October.

This data is through all 82 games of the 2010-11 season.  All but two games were scored by myself.  Game #10 versus the Rangers was recorded exclusively by George Ays, and game #15, with the Panthers as opponents, was recorded by Derek Zona.  Their data is included in the year-end totals.  (Game-By-Game Results can be viewed at Under the Helmet of Slava Duris, complete with links to each game)

The definition of a scoring chance, as originally written at the Copper & Blue:

"A scoring chance is defined as a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area – loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots (nicknamed the Home Plate), though sometimes slightly more generous than that depending on the amount of immediately-preceding puck movement or screens in front of the net. Blocked shots are generally not included but missed shots are. A player is awarded a scoring chance anytime he is on the ice and someone from either team has a chance to score. He is awarded a ‘chance for’ if someone on his team has a chance to score and a ‘chance against’ if the opposing team has a chance to score."

Some notes:

– Gustavsson’s 2010-11 season was a rough ride and the Leafs’ penchant for allowing more chances whenever he was in goal didn’t make him look any better.  I will go into detail on all three goaltender’s performances in a later article so keep an eye out for it during this off-season.

– Grabovski, MacArthur, and Kulemin made up the best unit on the Leafs all year long so it’s no surprise that they finish with the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd best Scoring Chance Differentials (DIF) among regular forwards. Grabovski’s line produced the most chances at Even Strength and allowed the fewest chances against.

– When all three were on the ice together, the Maple Leafs saw 260 chances for and 199 chances against.

– Upon joining the Leafs, Joffrey Lupul lined up with Tyler Bozak and Phil Kessel on a regular basis.  This fairly high-event line produced 82 chances and gave up 83 chances during even strength play.

– Besides Grabovski-MacArthur-Kulemin, Kris Versteeg was the only other forward with frequent playing time to have finished with a positive scoring chance differential.

– Kessel was very productive offensively again, but he seldom had strong linemates to work with and he had the highest rate of chances against among the regulars.

– Bozak provided his best work whenever placed on the 3rd forward unit, and as a regular PKer.

– For almost all of Luke Schenn’s icetime, Tomas Kaberle was his defensive partner up until the deal with the Bruins.  Alongside #15, Schenn saw 248 chances for to 222 chances against at EV; without Kaberle, 60-52.

– Dion Phaneuf had to fight an uphill battle throughout the season, taking on the toughest minutes of his career and struggling to get back into form after having had his leg cut by a skate early in the 2010-11 campaign.  The task only got tougher after his old D partner, Francois Beauchemin (who doesn’t get enough credit for competently taking on the thankless and unenviable job of holding back the opposition’s best offensive players), was traded and replaced by rookie Keith Aulie.  Before Beauchemin was sent to Anaheim, Phaneuf saw 188 chances for to 194 chances against at EV; after the trade, 146-161.

– Aulie in his first call-up: 29 for – 61 against (32.2 %); after his 2nd callup following the Beuchemin trade trade: 137-156 (46.8 %). See the chart below which illustrates his prowess during his first and second callups (broken up by the vertical line in the chart):