The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to clinch the Atlantic Division title when they take on the Buffalo Sabres. The Leafs need just one point from this matchup to clinch the division, which would provide head coach Craig Berube with the opportunity to rest as many bodies as possible in Game 82.

Though it may not be what their fans are hoping for right now, the Sabres have been in strong form recently with a record of 6-3-1 over the last 10 games. They have not played like a team that is ‘tanking’ by any means and should be well motivated to earn a win on home ice over a division rival.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.

It’s almost a lock that the Leafs will play the Ottawa Senators in Round One of the playoffs, as the Senators are guaranteed to be the higher wild-card seed, while the sequence needed for the Leafs to blow the division is quite unlikely. If Toronto gets one point from its final two matchups, it would win the division, while if the Tampa Bay Lightning get anything less than four points from their final two matchups, Toronto would also win the division.

The betting odds of the Florida Panthers winning versus Tampa Bay tonight parlayed with the Sabres winning in regulation are +745, which suggests there is only an 11.8% chance Toronto will not clinch the division on Tuesday.

In all likelihood Tuesday’s matchup will be the last true tune-up for the postseason, as head coach Craig Berube will likely rest as many regulars as possible in Game 82.

Toronto is heading into the postseason in excellent form, as it holds a record of 8-1-1 over the last 10 games. It has allowed only 1.90 goals against per game in that span and scored 3.60 goals for per game. The Leafs recent underlying results are less convincing, as they hold a 49.92 percent expected goal share over the last 10 games, but they continue to receive incredible play in goal and are a team that is likely to finish chances at a higher than average rate.

The Leafs authored one of their better performances of the season in their last matchup versus a contending Carolina Hurricanes side, as they gutted out the second half of a back-to-back to grab a stranglehold on the division. They held a 14-11 edge in high-danger scoring chances and received a strong performance in goal from Joseph Woll, who stopped 25 of 26 shots faced.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Jake McCabe and David Kampf are still listed as day-to-day, and it would seem unnecessary to have them play in this matchup if they are not one hundred percent healthy.

Mitch Marner needs just one point from this matchup to finally hit the 100-point plateau, and it may be his last opportunity to get it given that he may rest in Game 82. Marner will remain on the top line alongside Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies, as well as the top power play unit, which have both been highly effective units down the stretch.

Anthony Stolarz is expected to get the start in this matchup. He holds a +21.8 GSAx rating and .923 save percentage in 33 games this season and appears likely to be the starter in Game One of the playoffs.

The Sabres have played out the stretch quite effectively, as on top of their strong 6-3-1 record over the last 10 games, they hold a 52.61% expected goal share in that span. They have been one of the hottest teams in the league offensively of late, as they have generated 4.30 goals per game across the last ten matchups.

Alex Tuch has led the way with 14 points over the last 10 games, while Tage Thompson has scored nine goals in the same span. After a highly disappointing season overall, Jack Quinn has finally found his game offensively with 10 points over the last 10 games.

The underlying results suggest the Sabres strong recent offensive play has been more than simply a heater in terms of finishing, as they rank seventh in xGF/60 over the last 10 matchups.

Suspect defensive play and shaky goaltending have been two key reasons for Buffalo’s ugly record of 35-38-7, as it has allowed 3.49 goals against per game this season and holds a 31st-ranked team save percentage of .879.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has had a surprisingly awful campaign after an incredible second half in the 2023-24 season, as he has played to a -8.0 GSAx rating and .886 save percentage in 54 appearances. He has been confirmed as tonight’s starter.

Based on the Action Network App’s public betting data, 84% of the bets on sides in this game are on the Leafs to win, which is not overly surprising. While the Leafs are playing great hockey right now, the Sabres will surely be up for this matchup on home ice and have quietly been in excellent form down the stretch. For that reason, the prices look fair to me, and I don’t see value in targeting either team.

Marner has a great opportunity to finally hit the 100-point milestone in this matchup, as the Sabres are a very mediocre team defensively and continue to receive below-average play in goal from Luukkonen. The Leafs top line has consistently been quite threatening recently, and the top power play unit is also in excellent form.

Marner is priced at -125 to record an assist, and I see value in betting on him to do so in this matchup. He’s put up 18 assists in 25 games since his strong showing at the 4 Nations Face-Off, and has recorded at least one assist in 14 games in that span.