The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to extend their winning streak to three games when they host the Columbus Blue Jackets Wednesday evening.

The Leafs closed as -200 favorites in the first matchup between these sides this season, and suffered an ugly 6-2 loss in what was one of their worst performances of Toronto’s strong start to the campaign. They will look to redeem themselves on home ice, where they hold a record of 19-9-0.

Dennis Hildeby (.891 save percentage, 3.18 GAA) has been confirmed as the Leafs’ starting goaltender, and they are currently priced at -196 after opening at a consensus price of -220.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.

The upstart Blue Jackets have been one of the NHL’s most lovable stories this season, as they have overachieved expectations and remain right in the thick of a hotly contested Wild-Card race with a record of 22-18-7. Backing the Blue Jackets moneyline in each of their 47 games this season would have yielded a +11.3% ROI this season based on closing odds, a mark that is a strong indicator of how greatly they have outperformed expectations.

While there’s a lot of factors which make the Blue Jackets so lovable this season, part of the fun has been the high-event nature of their average matchup. They rank eighth in the NHL with a goal per game average of 3.26, but have allowed the fifth-highest goals against per game average of 3.34.

While the Blue Jackets have certainly taken steps forward because a number of key young skaters are a year further into their natural development, head coach Dean Evason certainly deserves lots of credit for his team’s start, and he’s done a good job of unlocking the potential of talented young forwards such as Kirill Marchenko and Dmitri Voronkov.

Marchenko, Voronkov, and Sean Monahan had performed as arguably the league’s best line prior to Monahan’s recent injury, as the trio had outscored opponents 22-5, and generated 5.75 goals per 60 minutes of play.

Due to Monahan’s injury, 2023 third-overall pick Adam Fantilli has been elevated to the top line alongside Marchenko and Voronkov. The unit has not been as entirely dominant, but has still been effective outscoring opponents 8-5.

Over the last month of play, the Blue Jackets hold an expected goal share of 49.82 percent, and have generated 28.37 shots on goal per 60.

Blue Jackets captain Boone Jenner and is expected to be sidelined until after the 4 Nations Face-off, as is talented young winger Yegor Chinakhov. Denton Mateychuk missed Monday’s game due to illness, and his status for this matchup is unclear.

Elvis Merzlikins is expected to start in goal in this matchup. He holds an .890 save percentage and -5.7 GSAx in 30 appearances this season.

The Leafs put together another performance to be proud of versus the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday, as just eight of the Lightning’s 27 chances on goal were considered to be of the high-danger variety. Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, and William Nylander were all excellent once again, combining for three goals and six points.

Based on yesterday’s practice, Leafs head coach Craig Berube will keep his top-three offensive units the same, while Connor Dewar appears to be coming out of the lineup in favour of Ryan Reaves as Dewar suffered an upper-body injury on Monday.

Over the last ten games, the Leafs have still allowed 3.39 xGA/60 and 29.29 shots against per 60. While they have shown progress during this three-game winning streak, it’s still been a lengthy sample of play since we saw a consistent stretch of strong defensive work from the Leafs.

Matthews, Marner, and Nylander have shown why they are making over $35 million combined recently though, as their elite offensive skill has shined through in a number of recent Leafs wins. While nobody will really care what the Leafs’ high-salaried stars do until the postseason, their strong production of late has been critical to the team’s success.

Hildeby will make his sixth start of the season in this matchup. He holds an .891 save percentage and -3.6 GSAx in his initial five appearances.

This matchup provides a great opportunity for the Leafs to make amends for their loss in October, and continue building their lead atop the Atlantic Division. Hildeby starting over Joseph Woll obviously heightens the Blue Jackets’ chances of netting a reasonable offensive total, but the sides and totals look to have been adjusted to that news accordingly.

The Leafs have been highly productive of late, as all of their top stars are in great form which has powered some lofty outputs. I’m expecting that to continue in this matchup, and believe we could see another big night from Toronto’s superstars versus a fairly middling defensive side.

Matthews has recorded a goal in four straight games, and seven of his last nine since returning to the lineup. Backing him to score at -123 is tempting, but my favourite bet is backing Bobby McMann to record over 2.5 shots on goal.

Over the last two games, McMann has recorded eight shots from 12 attempts. While a two-game sample isn’t entirely convincing, his uptick in shot volume has come down to the fact that his roles are drastically improved playing on the second line and top power-play unit.

McMann ranks third on the Leafs, averaging 10.00 shots per 60 this season. At -115, I believe we have a good price to back him to continue pouring shots on goal, as I don’t believe oddsmakers have moved this line enough to adjust to his current usage.