The Toronto Maple Leafs remain unbeaten since the 4 Nations Face-Off break, having won four consecutive games entering Sunday’s matchup with the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Toronto is a heavy betting favourite in Sunday’s game, as it takes on a Pittsburgh side which looks to be finally accepting the start of a painful rebuilding process. The Leafs will have a rest advantage as the Penguins lost Saturday afternoon to the Boston Bruins, moving their record on home ice to 14-13-4.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

It took another stellar performance from Anthony Stolarz, but the Leafs were able to grind out another win on the road versus an opponent in desperate need of two points. The Rangers held a 35-17 edge in shots on goal, and created six more high danger scoring chances. Those two statistics might be a bit of a harsh take towards Toronto’s overall game, but it was certainly somewhat fortuitous that the Leafs were able to hang on for the regulation win.

If the Leafs can bring a high level of urgency into this matchup and minimize unnecessary mistakes, their offensive talent upside should have a great chance of being the difference. The Penguins will be playing for the third time in three nights, and have struggled to defend this season even in far less ideal situations.

Based on Saturday’s practice, the Leafs appear to be keeping the same top-nine as we have seen throughout their four-game winning streak.

While the Leafs continue to explore potential acquisitions ahead of the Trade Deadline on March 7th, Nick Robertson continues to look like a player who really doesn’t want to be dealt away. Robertson’s compete level away from the puck continues to look improved, and he has been rewarded with four points over the last three games.

Toronto’s top line of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and Matthew Knies continues to prove highly effective, and at this point it seems clear that playing the trio together is the best way for head coach Craig Berube to configure his top line. Knies provides a physical edge and the ability to win battles along the walls, while Matthews is well suited playing with one of the game’s best playmakers in Marner.

Among offensive lines to spend over 250 minutes together, they rank second in the NHL with a 59.7% expected goal share, and hold a 57.5% actual goal share, while spending plenty of time playing against opposing top lines.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson suffered an injury on Friday versus the Rangers, and did not finish the game. He missed Saturday’s practice for what was tabbed as maintenance, and it is unclear if he will play in this game or not. Chris Tanev will miss this game with an upper body injury.

Joseph Woll has been confirmed as the starting goaltender. He holds a +13.4 GSAx rating and .910 save percentage in 31 appearances this season.

The Penguins do still hold some potential trade candidates such as Erik Karlsson and Rickard Rakell, and they are one of the few teams in the NHL which is confirmed as a seller entering this deadline. Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang all have no-move clauses and likely won’t be traded, but at this point the direction of GM Kyle Dubas’ team is quite clear.

On February 1, Dubas traded away the team’s top shutdown defender in Marcus Pettersson, as well as Drew O’ Connor in exchange for a first round pick and prospect Marvin Feldstrom. Since that point the Penguins hold a record of 3-5-1, and have allowed 3.67 goals against per game.

The Penguins do hold a strong 52.34% expected goal share in that span, but have been a team which underachieves it’s analytical expectations in each of the last two seasons. They have built a firm a reputation for being soft in the key areas of the ice, and feature a defence core which is prone to costly mistakes.

The team’s horrid goaltending certainly hasn’t helped matters, as they rank 31st in team save percentage this season. Joel Blomquist is expected to get the start Sunday, and holds a -1.4 GSAx and .890 save percentage in 14 appearances this season.

The Leafs have already had one hiccup this season versus the Penguins, as they lost 5-2 on home-ice in early December as comparably large favourites. It seems unlikely we will see another letdown performance from Toronto in this spot though, as these teams are trending in entirely different directions, and the Leafs look better in every faucet of the game right now.

While the Leafs’ play throughout this road trip hasn’t been entirely dominant, it has outlined their ability to win games in a variety of different ways. They continue receive excellent goaltending, are starting to receive much better depth scoring, and have elite offensive stars capable of finishing chances at a high rate.

The Penguins defensive play has improved since the start of the year, but it’s still far from a strength, and continues to look even worse due to the team’s shaky goaltending. Depth scoring has also been an issue, while it’s still hard to say the Penguins’ top-six is on par with the Leafs.

At the current price of -175, Toronto’s chances in this game seem to be undervalued. Backing Toronto to win in any fashion provides value, but my preferred bet is backing the Leafs to cover the puck-line, currently priced at +141 on Pinnacle.