The Toronto Maple Leafs and Philadelphia Flyers will complete a home-and-home set on Tuesday, marking the first game of Toronto’s mentor’s road trip. The Leafs managed a 3-2 overtime victory in a closely contested game on Sunday and are currently riding a four-game winning streak.

The Flyers completed a stretch of six straight road matchups Sunday, in which they had a record of 2-3-1. This matchup will mark their first home game since December 21st, and on home ice this season, Philadelphia has a record of 8-9-1.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

The Leafs did not offer too much of a letdown in Sunday’s matchup. They were playing the second leg of a back-to-back after besting the rival Boston Bruins on Saturday evening. The Flyers held a 15-13 edge in high-danger chances and outshot Toronto 32-25, but the Leafs were able to get the result on the strength of Morgan Rielly’s overtime winner.

Away from the numbers, head coach Craig Berube surely had to have been satisfied with the intensity and compete level that his side brought into a back-to-back game against a non-playoff team.

Sunday’s game had some edge to it, including a fight between Jake McCabe and Garnet Hathaway, which came after Hathaway ran Leafs goaltender Dennis Hildeby. Unfortunately, McCabe suffered an injury when he and Hathaway fell to the ice, and McCabe will miss this matchup with an upper-body injury.

Due to McCabe’s injury, the Leafs’ bottom two defensive pairings will look different in this matchup compared to what we have seen recently. Oliver Ekman-Larsson will skate alongside Chris Tanev on the second pairing, while Conor Timmins will draw back into the lineup to play alongside Simon Benoit.

Based on today’s morning skate, it also appears as though Nick Robertson will come out of the lineup in favour of Ryan Reaves, which likely is partially due to the nature of Sunday’s game, and a potential score to settle with Hathaway from a Leafs perspective. From a general perspective, it seems debatable whether or not taking out some potential depth scoring in Robertson is overly wise, but he wasn’t great on the weekend and you could argue this is a more logical spot to use Reaves than most others.

It appears as though the top line of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and Matthew Knies will remain intact. That’s certainly not surprising given the trio combined for 16 points throughout the weekend back-to-back set, including one even-strength goal versus Philadelphia on Sunday, a game in which the trio generated 0.96 xG and a 60% expected-goal share. Bobby McMann appears is being elevated to the second line alongside John Tavares and William Nylander.

Joseph Woll has been confirmed as the starting goaltender for this matchup. He holds a .914 save percentage and 2.48 GAA in 19 appearances this season.

The Flyers played well enough to win in Sunday’s matchup, but ultimately suffered yet another disappointing result after they failed to finish some key chances in the third period and overtime. Ivan Fedotov was far from horrible, stopping 22 of 25 shots, but it was certainly another game which could have been won with a more competent goaltender, and his rebound control in particular was not good.

Philadelphia ranks dead last in the NHL with a team save percentage of .869, which continues to be a concern that is masking an otherwise sound process.

Since December 1st, the Flyers hold an expected goal share of 54.08% and allowed just 24.65 shots against per 60. The shot quality they are allowing has not been bad either as they hold a fourth-best 2.67 xGA/60 in that span, and a high percentage of their goals against have come on low/medium-danger shots

Fedotov is expected to get the start in this matchup. He holds a .877 save percentage and 3.42 GAA in 11 appearances this season.

The Flyers have been playing better hockey than their record suggests, and the Leafs should be well aware of that fact after Sunday’s matchup, which clearly could have gone either way. The Flyers continue to lose games which look quite competitive due to their horrific goaltending though, and they do seem to be getting enough respect in tonight’s matchup from oddsmakers being priced at +120.

The Leafs will have a more notable goaltending edge than they had in Sunday’s matchup as well with Woll set to start. McCabe’s absence is significant though, and during the time of his last injury, the Leafs were clearly a less effective team defensively. The Leafs would be my lean in terms of a side, but I’m not quite willing to lay -139.

I’m happy to go back to the well with the same bet I recommended for Sunday’s game and back Knies to record a point, which is once again priced at +100.

Knies, Matthews and Marner have compiled one of the best lines in the league when together this season, and they generated a lot of looks in Sunday’s game. Due to their horrid goaltending, the Flyers have allowed among the third-most goals against in the league this season, and with that in mind, +100 looks to be a good spot to back Knies to stay hot on the top line.